Rupiah Opens Stronger as US Dollar Drops to Rp17,800 This Morning
The rupiah carried positive momentum from the end of last week into the opening of trading on Monday. The Garuda currency strengthened again against the United States dollar, even as the dollar index attempted to recover during Asian trading.
According to Refinitiv data, at the opening of trading on Monday (10/8/2026), the rupiah appreciated by 0.48% to the position of Rp17,800 per US dollar. This morning’s strengthening extends the rupiah’s positive trend after it ended the last three trading sessions of the previous week in the green zone. On Friday (7/8/2026), the rupiah closed 0.14% stronger at Rp17,885 per US dollar.
Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY), which measures the greenback’s strength against six major world currencies, was observed strengthening by 0.12% to 99.666 at 09.00 WIB.
The rupiah’s movement today is expected to still be influenced by the dynamics of the US dollar in global markets and anticipation of domestic consumer confidence data.
Externally, the DXY’s strengthening this morning has not erased the pressure on the US dollar. The index is still hovering around its lowest position in the last two months after US employment data for July showed weakness. The US economy unexpectedly lost jobs in July. Job additions for the previous two months were also revised down quite sharply, indicating the labour market is not as strong as initially estimated.
This data has eased market expectations that the US central bank (The Federal Reserve) will raise interest rates in September. The probability of a rate hike is now estimated at around 44%, down from 67% the previous week. These expectations also pressured US government bond yields. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell to around 4.637%, reducing the dollar’s appeal and providing room for emerging market currencies, including the rupiah.
Global market attention is now turning to US inflation data scheduled for release this week. The consensus forecast expects core inflation in July to rise 0.2% month-on-month, with the annual rate easing to 2.5% from 2.6% in June. The inflation data will be a crucial indicator of the Fed’s next steps. Continued easing of inflation could further reduce the likelihood of monetary tightening, whereas higher-than-expected data could potentially lift the dollar again.
On the other hand, rising oil prices still need to be monitored. Brent crude oil prices rose around 1.4% to around US$85 per barrel due to uncertainty regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran stated that an agreement with Oman on a new shipping route has entered its final stages, but several conditions still need to be met by the US.
Domestically, Bank Indonesia is scheduled to release its Consumer Survey for July today. The Consumer Confidence Index is expected to decline to 116 from 117.8 in June. The June index had previously fallen from 120.9, touching its lowest position since September 2025. The decline was mainly due to weakening public assessments of current economic conditions, durable goods purchases, and job availability. Consumer expectations for income, employment, and business activity over the next six months also weakened. However, the index remains above 100, indicating that Indonesian consumers remain in an optimistic zone. The survey results will be scrutinised to assess the resilience of household consumption after the economy grew 5.29% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026. Strong consumption could help maintain confidence in the domestic economic outlook and support the rupiah.