Rupiah Opens Strong This Morning, US Dollar Drops to Rp17,610
The Garuda currency began the final trading session of the week with a sharp appreciation against the United States (US) Dollar.
According to Refinitiv data, at the opening of trade on Friday (4/9/2026), the rupiah recorded an appreciation of up to 0.23% to the position of Rp17,610/US.ThisstrengtheningcontinuesthepositiveperformanceseenduringThursday′s(3/9/2026)trading, whentherupiahclosedup0.54. That position marked the rupiah’s strongest close since 21 May 2026, or approximately the last 15 weeks.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the strength of the greenback against six major world currencies, was observed to have strengthened slightly by 0.07% to 98.981 at 09:00 WIB. Despite reversing upwards this morning, the DXY had recently experienced a sharp decline of 0.69% at the close of the previous trading session.
The rupiah’s movement in today’s trading continues to receive positive sentiment from the weakening of the US dollar in the global market. The sharp decline in the DXY during the previous session provided greater room for emerging market currencies, including the rupiah, to strengthen.
Pressure on the dollar stems, in part, from the sharp strengthening of the Japanese yen. The yen surged more than 2% against the US dollar to reach 155.47 yen/US$, approaching its strongest level since early May. The strengthening of the yen was triggered by increasing expectations of an interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ). The market now estimates a 75% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September.
These expectations strengthened after BOJ Policy Board member Hajime Takata stated that the central bank needs to raise interest rates more quickly to face inflationary pressures. The strengthening yen also weighed on the DXY, as the Japanese currency is one of the major currencies within the US dollar index.
Pressure on the dollar increased after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller opened the possibility of maintaining interest rates at this month’s meeting. Waller stated that he tends to support a decision to maintain interest rates if subsequent economic data shows that inflationary pressures are beginning to subside. This statement prompted market participants to reduce expectations for a Fed rate hike in September, with the probability dropping to 48% from 59% before Waller shared his views.
The declining probability of a rate hike has made dollar-denominated assets relatively less attractive. This condition has pressured the greenback while providing additional momentum for the rupiah.
However, the future direction of the dollar will still be determined by the US labour report scheduled for release on Friday local time. Economists expect the US economy to create 56,000 new jobs in August, after unexpectedly losing 23,000 jobs in July. US unemployment claims released on Thursday also showed a slight increase last week, though the data has not yet shown a significant change in labour market conditions through the end of August.
A labour report weaker than expected could further reduce the likelihood of a Fed rate hike, pressuring the dollar and opening room for further strengthening of the Garuda currency. Conversely, stronger data could increase expectations of monetary tightening and limit the pace of the rupiah’s appreciation.