Rupiah Opens Slightly Weaker, US Dollar Rises to Rp17,850 This Morning

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - The rupiah opened trading in negative territory against the United States (US) dollar on Tuesday (30/6/2026). Citing Refinitiv data, the rupiah exchange rate weakened 0.08% to Rp17,850/US$ at the opening of trade this morning. This position reverses the rupiah’s positive trend in the previous session. On Monday (29/6/2026), the rupiah managed to close 0.39% stronger at Rp17,835/US$. Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY), which measures the greenback’s strength against six major world currencies, was observed strengthening 0.13% to 101.242 at 09.00 WIB. The rupiah’s movement today will continue to be influenced by external dynamics, particularly the direction of the US dollar in global markets. The US dollar had previously lost momentum following reports that shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz was moving freely again. This condition eased market concerns over the escalation of the conflict between the United States and Iran, which had heated up again late last week. The US and Iran are said to have agreed to exercise restraint from further attacks ahead of the next round of negotiations. The report also stated that ships could once again move freely through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global energy trade. The easing of concerns in the Strait of Hormuz helped reduce demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset. This condition provided room for other countries’ currencies, including the rupiah, to move more positively. However, the market is still scrutinising the direction of the US central bank’s (The Federal Reserve/The Fed) interest rate policy. Based on the CME FedWatch Tool, market participants estimate the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at The Fed’s 28-29 July meeting stands at 31.50%. Meanwhile, the probability of interest rates being maintained at current levels reaches 68.50%. Investors are now awaiting the release of US labour data this week, including ADP and nonfarm payrolls figures. This data will be one of the market’s considerations in reading the future direction of The Fed’s monetary policy. Domestically, the government, together with the DPR, Bank Indonesia (BI), and the National Economic Council (DEN), has also held a coordination meeting to maintain economic growth momentum while mitigating the impact of global uncertainty. From the fiscal side, Vice Minister of Finance Juda Agung confirmed that the state budget (APBN) condition remains well maintained. The deficit up to May 2026 was recorded at 0.7% of gross domestic product (GDP) and is expected to remain below the 3% limit until the end of 2026. This fiscal stability is one of the aspects being observed by the market, especially amidst global pressure on exchange rates and the need to maintain investor confidence.