Rupiah Opens Slightly Stronger at Rp 17,992 Despite Fitch Warning on Fragile Macroeconomic Conditions

The rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar is predicted to remain volatile but closed stronger in trading today. Based on Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) data from Bank Indonesia, the rupiah was positioned at Rp 17,999 on Monday, 6 July 2026, weakening by 39 points from the previous level of Rp 17,960 on Friday, 3 July 2026. In spot market trading on Tuesday, 7 July 2026, up to 09:02 WIB, the rupiah was transacted at Rp 17,992 per US dollar, strengthening by 3 points or 0.02 percent from the previous position of Rp 17,995 per US dollar. Economic and money market observer Ibrahim Assuaibi stated that the market responded negatively to the latest Fitch Ratings report, which highlighted the fragility of Indonesia’s macroeconomic conditions, as seen in indicators such as the weakening rupiah, declining foreign exchange reserves, and massive capital outflows. He noted that Fitch’s primary concern lies in the weakening investor confidence due to deteriorating economic governance. The rating agency warned that prolonged pressure could increase government debt and borrowing costs, while also heightening the risk of a downgrade to Indonesia’s sovereign rating, which was maintained at BBB with a negative outlook in March 2026. Beyond the Fitch report, the market is also unsettled after Indonesia’s trade balance recorded a deficit. The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) previously noted a trade deficit of US$1.61 billion in May 2026, ending a 72-month run of consecutive surpluses. Bank Indonesia has intervened in the market and increased the intensity of its interventions to ensure proper market mechanisms. As part of its stabilisation strategy, the central bank has conducted continuous interventions through Non-Deliverable Forward (NDF) transactions in the offshore market, spot and Domestic Non-Deliverable Forward (DNDF) transactions in the domestic market, as well as purchases of Government Securities (SBN) in the secondary market. The central bank is also strengthening coordination and communication with corporations and market participants to maintain financial market stability.