Rupiah movement influenced by increase in US ADP Employment Change
Jakarta (ANTARA) - The Chief Economist of Permata Bank, Josua Pardede, stated that the movement of the rupiah is being influenced by the US Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment Change data for September 2026, which increased to 90,000 from 38,000 in the previous month.
“This data demonstrates the resilience of the US labour market, thereby supporting demand for the US dollar,” he told ANTARA in Jakarta on Thursday.
The rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar at the start of Thursday’s trading weakened by 21 points, or 0.12 per cent, to Rp17,915 per US dollar compared to the previous close of Rp17,894 per US dollar.
Meanwhile, the inflation indicator that serves as a primary reference for the Fed, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), was recorded lower than expectations. The PCE Price Index remained at 3.4 per cent year-on-year (yoy) in August 2026, below the consensus of 3.7 per cent yoy.
In line with headline inflation, the Core PCE Price Index also remained unchanged at 3.0 per cent yoy, lower than the expectation of 3.3 per cent yoy.
Regarding domestic sentiment, the rupiah is said to have received positive sentiment thanks to Bank Indonesia’s (BI) firmness in maintaining the stability of the rupiah exchange rate.
“These statements provide reassurance to investors regarding the prospects of rupiah stability,” he said.
Today, the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) is also scheduled to release the trade balance data for August 2026 and inflation data for September 2026.
“We expect the trade surplus to increase from US$0.12 billion in July 2026 to US$0.93 billion in August 2026, supported by rising commodity prices. Meanwhile, headline inflation is expected to increase to 3.35 per cent yoy in September 2026 from 3.19 per cent yoy in the previous month, driven by increases in volatile and administered prices,” said Josua.
Based on these factors, the rupiah is expected to move within the range of Rp17,825–Rp17,925 per US dollar.