Rupiah forecast to hit Rp 18,000 per US dollar next week
The rupiah’s exchange rate in the spot market is forecast to face heavy pressure. The Indonesian currency could weaken to Rp 18,000 per US dollar next week.
The rupiah’s depreciation aligns with the projected US dollar index remaining above 100 in the final week of May 2026.
Currency and Commodities Analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi stated that the rupiah’s movement is still under external pressure, mainly from the US dollar’s strengthening in global markets.
“The rupiah is likely to reach Rp 18,000 per US dollar next week,” Ibrahim told reporters on Sunday (24 May 2026).
This situation signals that the US dollar is likely to continue strengthening as it has in recent weeks.
“The support level is likely around 97.600, while resistance is at 101.00. That’s the indication. So the forecast, as in recent weeks, is for continued strengthening,” he added.
The US dollar’s strengthening is expected to exert additional pressure on emerging market currencies, including the rupiah. When the US dollar index rises, foreign capital tends to flow towards dollar-denominated assets considered safer.
Ibrahim noted that the rupiah’s weakness is influenced by both internal and external factors, including international market reactions to President Prabowo Subianto’s speech during the DPR RI plenary session on Wednesday (20 May 2026).
The President’s speech on the 2027 State Budget’s Macroeconomic Framework and Fiscal Policy Guidelines (KEM-PPKF) has drawn international attention, including from S&P Global Ratings.
S&P Global Ratings highlighted Indonesia’s plan to centralise commodity exports could suppress exports, reduce government revenue, and affect the country’s balance of payments.
The single-channel commodity export agency was first announced by President Prabowo Subianto in his DPR speech. It is named PT Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia (DSI).
DSI will be tasked with purchasing all export commodities from domestic companies before selling them to overseas buyers. Currently, the mandated commodities are coal, palm oil (CPO), and iron alloys or fero alloys.
“Internally, the President’s speech at the DPR was also reviewed by international rating agencies, including S&P Global, which is likely to downgrade Indonesia’s credit rating,” Ibrahim told reporters on Friday afternoon.
“Why? Because the widening fiscal deficit, approaching 3%, is a key reason S&P may lower the rating,” he added.