Rupiah Falls Below 18,000 Amid Global and Domestic Pressures

The Rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar has come under pressure, falling 0.27% to breach 18,015 per US dollar in trading on Thursday morning. This level represents one of the Rupiah’s weakest positions in recent times, marking a new psychological threshold of 18,000 per US dollar.

Currency analyst Lukman Leong of Doo Financial Futures believes this weakening reflects strong external pressures amid increasing global uncertainty, coupled with less favourable domestic sentiment.

“The Rupiah is expected to weaken against the strengthening US dollar amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East,” Lukman told Antara in Jakarta on Thursday, June 4, 2026.

In addition, several US economic data releases that were better than market expectations have further strengthened the US currency. US employment data and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) services sector activity index, which showed stronger-than-expected performance, have increased optimism about the US economy.

The combination of these factors has increased demand for the US dollar and put pressure on emerging market currencies, including the Rupiah.

Domestically, market sentiment is also considered to be not strong enough to support the Rupiah’s movement. However, Lukman expects the Rupiah’s weakening to be contained by stabilisation measures taken by Bank Indonesia (BI). With the exchange rate approaching a new psychological level, the central bank is expected to increase the intensity of its intervention in the financial market to maintain exchange rate stability.

“With the still-poor domestic sentiment and the exchange rate approaching a new psychological level, Bank Indonesia is likely to intervene aggressively,” he added.

Lukman expects the Rupiah to remain volatile in the range of 17,900 - 18,050 per US dollar.