Rupiah Faces Risk-Off Sentiment Due to Uncertainty in the Middle East
Jakarta (ANTARA) - Permata Bank’s Chief Economist Josua Pardede assesses that the rupiah exchange rate is still receiving risk-off sentiment due to uncertainty over the potential peace agreement between the United States and Iran in the Middle East.
“This sentiment is triggered by reports that the White House is still awaiting Iran’s response before starting peace negotiations. Investors interpret the statement as a signal of still high uncertainty regarding the peace process,” he told ANTARA in Jakarta on Friday.
The rupiah exchange rate strengthened by 6 points or 0.03 percent to Rp17,280 per US dollar from the previous close at Rp17,286 per US dollar on Friday morning.
Quoting Sputnik, on 7 April 2026, Washington and Tehran announced a two-week ceasefire, which was followed by talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, although they ended without conclusion.
After failing to reach an agreement, the US stated it would begin blockading ships entering and leaving Iranian ports.
After the two-week ceasefire ended, Trump stated that the United States would extend the ceasefire with Iran while continuing the blockade, adding that peace talks with Iran “might” occur within the next 36 to 72 hours.
Meanwhile, Iran is actually ready to continue negotiations to achieve peace but doubts the sincerity of the US, as conveyed by Iran’s Ambassador to Russia Kazem Jalali, reported by Xinhua.
If it wants to negotiate, the US is asked by Iran to ensure that negotiation practices are not based on dictating conditions, deception, or deliberately prolonging the negotiation process.
Looking at global sentiment, the release of preliminary US Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for April 2026 was stronger than expected.
The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI rose to 54.0 from 52.3, exceeding expectations of 52.5, while the Services PMI rebounded to 51.3 from 49.8, also higher than projections of 50.6.
This release reflects the resilience of the US economy amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.
On the other hand, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending 18 April 2026 surprisingly increased to 214,000 from 208,000 the previous week.
Based on these factors, the rupiah is expected to move within the range of Rp17,225-Rp17,350 per US dollar.