Rupiah Extends Gains, US Dollar Now Parked at Rp18,060
The Garuda currency closed stronger against the United States (US) dollar in trading today, Wednesday (15/7/2026). The appreciation occurred amid dynamics in the global market where the US dollar is facing pressure.
Referring to Refinitiv data, the rupiah exchange rate closed trading at Rp18,060/US.Thispositionsawtherupiahappreciateby0.11.
On the other hand, the US dollar index (DXY), which measures the greenback’s strength against six major world currencies, was observed moving steadily at 100.912 as of 15.00 WIB. Previously, the DXY experienced sharp pressure of 0.31% in trading on Tuesday (14/7/2026).
The rupiah’s strengthening was still supported by pressure on the US dollar in global markets after the United States announced lower-than-expected inflation data. US annual inflation fell to 3.5% in June 2026. This figure marks the first decline in four months, lower than the May 2026 position of 4.2%, and below the consensus projection of 3.8%.
In detail, the energy index still recorded an annual increase of 15.7%, while food prices rose 3.0%. However, on a monthly basis, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded deflation of 0.4%. This realisation was deeper than the expected deflation of 0.1%. This monthly deflation is the first since May 2020. The decline also represents the largest monthly contraction since April 2020, during the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic.
The lower-than-expected inflation data caused market expectations for monetary policy tightening by the US central bank (The Federal Reserve/The Fed) to ease. Based on the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate hike in July fell to 16%, from 42% on Monday. Even so, the probability of a rate hike this year remains quite large, at 80%, down from 89% on Monday.
The weakening of the US dollar in global markets ultimately opened up room for strengthening for other countries’ currencies, including the rupiah.
Positive sentiment also came from the decision by S&P Global Ratings to maintain Indonesia’s credit rating at BBB for the long term and A-2 for the short term. S&P also maintained Indonesia’s outlook at stable. This decision is a breath of fresh air for Indonesia, especially after Moody’s and Fitch previously revised Indonesia’s outlook from stable to negative, although they maintained Indonesia’s credit rating.
Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa assessed that S&P’s decision was fairer than the assessments of other rating agencies. “I have said many times, the other previous agencies, there is a possibility they were offside because they made their assessment before the first quarter data came out. Remember that? I said it was too early, not that they were wrong, just too early. So I think S&P is fairer,” Purbaya stated at the DPR RI Building, Central Jakarta. This sentiment helped maintain market perception of Indonesia’s macroeconomic stability, amid still-high global pressures.