Rupiah exchange rate forecast to range around 17,700 per USD next week

The director of PT Traze Andalan Futures, Ibrahim Assuaibi, has predicted that the Indonesian rupiah will remain around Rp 17,000 per US dollar at the opening of trading on Monday of next week. This represents a continuation of the weakening trend following Friday’s close at Rp 17,712 per dollar.

“For the week ahead, the rupiah is likely to range between Rp 17,680–17,800 per dollar,” he said on Friday, 22 May 2026.

According to Assuaibi, the influencing factors include uncertain global conditions, particularly the conflict between the United States and Israel with Iran. Additionally, the transition of the Federal Reserve chairman from Jerome Powell to Kevin Warsh has not confirmed a policy of lowering interest rates; instead, there is a possibility of raising rates by up to 50 basis points.

Domestically, economic growth of 5.61 per cent has not aligned with a strengthening of the rupiah’s value. Although the government is currently purchasing State Securities (SBN) in the secondary market worth Rp 2.2 trillion as an intervention measure to prevent the rupiah from weakening further, the currency remains under pressure.

Assuaibi also believes that President Prabowo Subianto’s speech concerning the establishment of a State-Owned Enterprise (SOE)—PT Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia—which will oversee the export of natural resource commodities, has significantly unsettled the market. “This could lead to monopoly conditions, and here is where foreign capital outflows have become rapid and the rupiah has weakened,” he said.

Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa stated that the rupiah exchange rate will not collapse as it did in 1998. Despite the rupiah currently having fallen below the lowest point of that year, which stood at Rp 16,500 per dollar.

Purbaya predicted that in June there would be significant dollar supply flowing into the Indonesian economy. He has also called on foreign exchange players to quickly sell off their dollar assets.

“As I say, foreign exchange players should hurry and sell. We will push the rupiah towards Rp 15,000,” he said at the Jogja Financial Festival on Friday, 22 May 2026.

According to Purbaya, the government is also entering the bond market to prevent yields from rising too sharply. Foreign investors should not be forced to exit the market due to losses.