Rupiah Could Fall to Rp18,200 per US Dollar This Week: Key Factors

The rupiah is expected to remain under pressure in the final week of October 2026, with the Indonesian currency potentially weakening to Rp18,200 per US dollar over the coming week.

Economic, currency and commodity analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi said a stronger US dollar index and rising global crude oil prices were the main factors weighing on the rupiah. “With the dollar index strengthening and crude oil prices rising, the rupiah is weakening and could reach Rp18,200 per US dollar next week,” he said in a statement recording received on Monday (26 October 2026).

Ibrahim forecast that the US dollar index would trade in a range of 100.90–103.10 this week. If it strengthens towards 103.10, pressure on the rupiah is expected to intensify.

Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is projected to continue its upward trend, with support at US$96.90 a barrel and resistance at US$108.30 a barrel.

Several geopolitical factors are also clouding the outlook for energy prices, including tensions in the Middle East, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and disruptions to oil production in Libya.

Higher crude prices could push up transport and logistics costs, adding to global inflationary pressure and affecting market expectations for US Federal Reserve monetary policy.

Ibrahim said the possibility of US interest-rate rises in November and December should be monitored if inflationary pressure from higher energy prices continues. If expectations of rate increases strengthen, the US dollar could become more attractive to investors.

That could increase pressure on emerging-market currencies, including the rupiah. The currency’s direction this week will therefore depend on developments in the US dollar index, global crude prices and geopolitical dynamics, all of which could also shape market expectations for US monetary policy.