Rupiah Continues to Slide to 18,051 on Oil Price Surge and Moody's Negative Rating for Danantara
The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate against the United States dollar is predicted to remain volatile but is expected to close weaker in today’s trading. Based on data from the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) published by Bank Indonesia, the rupiah was at Rp 18,039 on Thursday, 4 June 2026. This position represents a depreciation of 108 points from the previous rate of Rp 17,931 on Wednesday, 3 June 2026. In the spot market on Friday, 5 June 2026, up to 09.07 WIB, the rupiah was transacted at Rp 18,051 per US dollar, weakening by 2 points or 0.01 percent from the previous level of Rp 18,049.
Economic and money market analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi stated that heightened concerns following elevated crude oil prices are triggering risks of a fiscal deficit approaching 3 percent and external imbalances, creating fears of greater state intervention in commodities. “Added to this is anxiety over the possible MSCI reclassification of the capital market, on which no definitive decision has yet been made,” Ibrahim said in his daily research note.
Meanwhile, April trade data showed the surplus fading, as soaring oil import costs outpaced exports. May inflation rose to 3.08 percent, above the midpoint of the central bank’s target, driven by rising prices of imported goods. Subsequently, Moody’s Ratings assigned its first rating to PT Danantara Investment Management at a Baa2 level. The provisional rating for the global medium-term note has not yet been issued by Danantara Investment Management. “However, Moody’s stated that the outlook for Danantara Investment Management’s rating is at a negative level,” Ibrahim noted.
Regarding the negative outlook, Moody’s explained that this assessment is based on the strong linkage between Danantara Investment Management, the Investment Management Agency (BPI) Danantara, and the Indonesian government as the full owner of Danantara. Over the long term, the rating is likely to move in line with Indonesia’s sovereign rating. Danantara Investment Management’s rating could be downgraded if Indonesia’s sovereign rating weakens. “The rupiah currency is fluctuating but will close weaker in the range of Rp 18,050 to Rp 18,120,” he stated.
Investors remain cautious amid escalating military tensions in the Middle East. Washington announced a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon on Wednesday evening, although the deal hinges on a cessation of hostilities by Hezbollah.