Rupiah Closes Weaker, US Dollar Rises to Rp17,930
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia — The Garuda currency failed to maintain its positive momentum against the US dollar at the start of the trading week on Monday (20/7/2026).
According to Refinitiv data, the rupiah exchange rate closed 0.25% weaker at Rp17,930/US.Attheopeningoftradingthismorning, therupiahdepreciated0.42, before weakening further to touch Rp17,990/US$.
The rupiah gradually pared its losses towards the close. Today’s movement contrasted with trading at the end of last week, Friday (17/7/2026), when the rupiah strengthened sharply by 0.53% to Rp17,885/US$.
Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY) was stable at 100.765 as of 15:00 WIB.
Escalation of the conflict in the Middle East has once again heightened investor caution while also pushing up oil prices. This has kept demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset elevated, leaving less room for developing-market currencies, including the rupiah, to strengthen.
On the monetary policy front, markets still expect the US central bank (the Federal Reserve) to keep interest rates on hold at its meeting on 29 July.
Based on the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed holding rates stands at 85.6%, a sharp increase from 61.5% a month ago.
However, the Fed’s policy direction remains clouded by differences of view among its officials. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack on Friday joined several other officials who believe interest rates may need to be raised to curb persistently high inflationary pressures.
The statement opens the possibility of heated debate at the Fed’s upcoming meeting, as well as the potential for a split vote at the second meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair.
Beyond external factors, markets are also awaiting the results of Bank Indonesia’s Board of Governors Meeting (RDG BI), which will announce its decision on the benchmark interest rate on Wednesday (22/7/2026).
BI has raised its benchmark rate by a total of 100 basis points since May 2026. The latest increase of 25 basis points was delivered on 18 June 2026, after BI previously held an unscheduled meeting on 9 June to respond to pressure on the rupiah.