Rupiah Closes Weaker at Rp 18,128 per US Dollar, Analysts Point to Fiscal Factors

The rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar corrected above the Rp 18,000 per US dollar level. The weakening of the Garuda currency is considered to be influenced by fiscal factors. Citing Bloomberg, the rupiah weakened by 114 points, or 0.63 percent, to Rp 18,128 per US dollar at the close of trading on Thursday (9/7/2026). In the previous trading session, the rupiah closed at Rp 18,014 per US dollar. “(Internal sentiment) The faster implementation of the 2026 State Budget (APBN) in the first semester of 2026 became a negative sentiment for the market,” said Currency and Commodity Observer Ibrahim Assuaibi in his statement on Thursday (9/7/2026). The 2026 State Budget is designed as the main instrument to maintain economic stability while supporting the implementation of eight national priority agendas. These include strengthening food security, energy security, implementing the Free Nutritious Meals (MBG) programme, improving the quality of the education sector, strengthening health services, village development and empowering cooperatives and micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), strengthening the universal defence system, and accelerating investment and increasing global trade. The State Budget also serves a strategic function as a fiscal instrument to maintain economic stability, increase productivity, and strengthen the foundation of national economic growth. Therefore, its development is a major concern for market participants. Not only influenced by the State Budget factor, sentiment also came from a decline in the Consumer Confidence Index (IKK). “Consumer sentiment slumped for the second consecutive month in June, reaching its weakest point since September last year. Bank Indonesia reported the results of the June 2026 Consumer Survey indicating a decline in public confidence in the national economic condition. This correction is visible from the weakening trend of the main index and all its constituent components, which moved in unison downwards towards the end of the first semester of this year,” he explained. Based on macro data released by Bank Indonesia, the IKK in June 2026 stood at 117.8. This figure shows a decrease compared to May 2026, which reached 120.9, and January 2026, which was at 127.0. Although it has declined in recent months, Bank Indonesia asserts that the public’s economic psychological condition is generally still in a safe zone. Consumer confidence is considered maintained because the national IKK is consistently above the optimistic threshold of 100.