Rupiah Closes Weaker as US Dollar Climbs to Rp17,990
The Indonesian Rupiah closed weaker against the US Dollar in trading on Wednesday (8/7/2026) amidst increasing war escalation in the Middle East.
According to Refinitiv data, the Rupiah exchange rate ended in the red, correcting by 0.11% to the level of Rp17,990/US$.
The Rupiah initially began trading this morning at the level of Rp17,970/US, remainingstagnantcomparedtothepreviousclose.However, astradingprogressed, theRupiahfacedpressureandbrieflybreachedthepsychologicallevelofRp18, 000/US.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the strength of the greenback against six major world currencies, was observed to have weakened by 0.07% to the level of 100.952 as of 15:00 WIB.
The Rupiah’s movement throughout the day was still influenced by US Dollar dynamics in the global market. Although the DXY was seen weakening this afternoon, the index had maintained a strengthening zone from yesterday’s close until this morning’s opening.
This dynamic occurred due to rising tensions in the Middle East. The escalation followed the United States launching retaliatory strikes against Iran early Wednesday morning local time, following reports of attacks on several tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
The latest attacks have caused markets to worry again about potential disruptions to the global energy supply. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important oil and gas shipping routes, so any disruption in this region can directly trigger concerns regarding energy distribution.
Rising oil prices have revived inflation concerns. For financial markets, increasing inflationary pressure could make the US central bank (The Federal Reserve/The Fed) more cautious in determining the direction of interest rate policy.
Market participants are now also awaiting the minutes of the Fed’s June meeting, which will be released on Thursday early morning Indonesian time. The minutes will be scrutinised for further signals regarding the direction of US monetary policy, especially after recent labour data showed a slowdown.
Currently, market participants estimate the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate hike at the Fed’s July 28-29 meeting at 27.30%. Meanwhile, the probability of interest rates being maintained at the current level reaches 72.70%, based on the CME FedWatch Tool.
Domestically, Bank Indonesia (BI) noted that the June 2026 Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) remained at an optimistic level of 117.8. However, this figure was lower than the May 2026 CCI, which was recorded at 120.9.
In the report released on Wednesday (8/7/2026), BI stated that consumer optimism was still supported by perceptions of current economic conditions and expectations for future economic conditions.
The Current Economic Condition Index (CECI) was recorded at 109.2, while the Consumer Expectation Index (CEI) stood at 126.4. Both remain above the 100 level, indicating that consumers remain optimistic, although pressures are starting to become visible compared to the previous month.