Rupiah Closes Weak, US Dollar Now Parked at Rp18,100

The rupiah exchange rate ended the start of the week’s trading in the red against the United States (US) dollar. Pressure mounted amid a strengthening US dollar index. Referring to Refinitiv data, the Garuda currency closed at Rp18,100 per US dollar, weakening 0.30% in trading on Monday (13/7/2026). This position puts the rupiah back at its weakest level in the past month. Throughout the trading session, the rupiah had been under pressure since the morning. The Garuda currency opened weaker at Rp18,075 per US dollar, before its correction deepened to breach the psychological level of Rp18,100 per US dollar. The rupiah even briefly touched its daily weakest level at Rp18,140 per US dollar. Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY), which measures the strength of the US dollar against six major world currencies, was observed edging up 0.04% to 100.985 as of 15.00 WIB. The rupiah’s weakening today was mainly influenced by high demand for the US dollar amid renewed global uncertainty. Pressure emerged after United States and Iranian forces exchanged missile and drone attacks over the weekend. Iran targeted US facilities in several Gulf countries on Sunday, while also declaring the re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial route for global energy trade. This development immediately lifted oil prices at the start of Asian trading. Brent crude oil prices were recorded rising 3.3% to US$78.49 per barrel. The rise in oil prices is a concern as it could add to global inflationary pressures. A resurgence in inflation could increase the likelihood of interest rate hikes by the US central bank, the Federal Reserve. Currently, market participants are leaning towards expecting the Fed to raise interest rates twice by the end of the year. Based on the CME FedWatch Tool, the implied probability for two or more rate hikes by the December meeting stood at 52.1%, up from 47.6% last Friday. The combination of geopolitical tensions, rising oil prices, and increased expectations of US interest rate hikes has given the US dollar renewed strength. This condition put pressure on the rupiah throughout the start of the week’s trading.