Rupiah Breaches Rp 17,300, IHSG Potentially Weakens
REPUBLIKA.CO.ID, JAKARTA – The rupiah exchange rate breached the Rp 17,300 per US dollar level during trading on Thursday (23/4/2026). Observers predict that the Garuda currency’s movement could reach Rp 17,400 per US dollar by the end of 2026.
Quoting Bloomberg, around 11:16 WIB, the rupiah weakened by 123 points or 0.72 percent to Rp 17,304 per US dollar. In the previous trading session, the rupiah was at Rp 17,181 per US dollar.
“Today, the rupiah has broken above Rp 17,300 per US dollar. This means the expectation of Rp 17,300 per US dollar has been achieved on Thursday, and it is very likely that by the end of April, i.e., next week, it will breach the Rp 17,400 per US dollar level,” said Currency and Commodities Observer Ibrahim Assuaibi in his statement to reporters on Thursday (23/4/2026).
Ibrahim explained that the projection of the rupiah at Rp 17,400 per US dollar was actually an expectation for the entire year. However, in reality, it has already been reached in the fourth month (April).
“One of the main causes is external issues, namely in this week’s meeting between the US and Iran facilitated by Pakistan, Iran did not participate in the negotiations because the US has violated rules in weapons policy by capturing or seizing an Iranian tanker passing through the Strait of Hormuz,” he clarified.
On the other hand, he continued, Iran is prepared for a prolonged war and no longer trusts the US. The US itself has unilaterally made weapons policies to achieve some agreement.
The agreement desired by the US is that the Strait of Hormuz should not be subject to tariffs by Iran. Then, the cessation of uranium enrichment and its takeover or storage in the US.
“These two things are very likely not to be accepted by Iran because they are the rights of a sovereign state. Thus, Iran does not want to be intervened by the US,” he explained.
Internal Sentiment
Ibrahim continued, as for the internal sentiments pressuring the rupiah exchange rate, among others, is the potential impact of rising oil prices on the state budget.
“From an internal perspective, with the current rise in Brent crude oil prices to 103 US dollars per barrel, and WTI crude oil at 98 US dollars per barrel, Indonesia’s budget deficit is likely to widen again,” he explained.
Ibrahim stated that Indonesia’s world oil imports amount to 1.5 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s crude oil needs reach 2.1 million barrels per day. Thus, the government must prepare a substantial budget to meet oil consumption needs.
On the other hand, Pertamina’s tankers in the Strait of Hormuz have still not been able to exit due to the escalating political unrest in the Middle East.
“Furthermore, the government’s debt is approaching a very large maturity. This also affects the government’s performance,” he said.
Ibrahim added that the government recently raised the prices of non-subsidised fuels, including Pertamax Turbo. Meanwhile, Pertamax was not increased. This is seen as potentially increasing the government’s subsidy burden. Because, Pertamax users might switch to Pertalite (subsidised fuel).
The oil price in the 2026 State Budget is set at 70 US dollars per barrel, with a maximum limit of 92 US dollars per barrel.
“The rupiah in the 2026 State Budget is pegged at Rp 16,500 per US dollar. Here, the government needs large funds to cover leakages, especially in world crude oil imports. This might be one of the causes of the rupiah weakening again above Rp 17,300,” he concluded.