RP's economy growing, security still a problem

RP's economy growing, security still a problem

By Cecil Morella

MANILA (AFP): Philippine President Fidel Ramos enters his
third year in power with the economy showing signs of
improvement, but security problems persist and kidnappings
terrify the influential ethnic Chinese.

The retired general came into office on June 30, 1992 with a
seemingly improbable vow that the country would join the ranks of
its neighbors' tiger economies by the year 2000. Most experts
agree the results have been mixed.

The 25-year-old Maoist insurgency has virtually ground to a
halt, with demoralized guerrillas lying low in rural areas as
leaders of its internal factions fight a verbal war.

In addition, rightist military rebels who nearly brought down
the government in the late 1980s have been rendered largely
impotent.

Ramos is trying to settle the law and order situation by
speeding up peace talks on three fronts -- with communist
insurgents, military coup plotters and largely dormant Moslem
guerrillas who mounted a separatist war in the 1970s.

He has used the breathing-space resulting from the effort to
salvage the region's economic basket case.

The first 18 months were difficult, as an energy crisis wore
the economy down, but 12-hour daily outages are a thing of the
past, following a frenetic power plant-building program involving
the private sector.

The economy posted a surprising, investment-led 4.84 percent
growth in the first quarter, and last weekend the International
Monetary Fund approved a planned "exit program" to end more than
a decade of stewardship of the economy.

A cooperative congress helped Ramos open up the economy,
making it more attractive to foreign investors as banking,
telecommunications and infrastructure were deregulated.

But despite these achievements, foreign remittances from the
country's two million-strong overseas work force continue to
outperform electronics -- the top merchandise export -- which
earned three billion dollars last year.

Ramos himself admitted earlier this month that the general
economic advance has yet to make a "direct impact on our
population as a whole," but that with fundamentals in place, "we
can now move on in high gear in addressing our social concerns."

High public deficits, inflation which hit double digits last
month, and an appreciating currency cloud the otherwise rosy
outlook, with some economists saying Manila is merely riding the
crest of the old "boom and bust" cycle.

Ramos's economic success has yet to rub off on his foreign
policy record.

He capitulated to Indonesian pressure this month when he tried
in vain to ban an otherwise minor private conference on human
rights in East Timor.

Relations with China have been especially difficult, as Manila
embraces Taiwan in search of investments and export markets while
affirming a "One China" policy officially recognizing Beijing
alone.

The South China Sea has been transformed into a diplomatic
quagmire as Beijing searches for oil in the area disputed by six
countries, including China and the Philippines.

Short-tempered, Ramos picks fights with critics and blames the
contentious and irreverent local press for focusing on the
shortcomings of his policies.

However, what cannot be disputed is that there has been an
upsurge in law and order-related problems in rural areas as well
as the capital.

The country's south has erupted in random violence, topped by
the massacre of 15 Christian civilians by militant Moslem gunmen
earlier this month. The army had to use artillery and air power
to crush the bandits.

In Manila, the small but economically influential ethnic
Chinese community has been cowed by a wave of ransom kidnappings,
many believed perpetrated by rogue soldiers and police, as well
as renegade communist guerrillas.

Police have documented 13 kidnapping cases in the first four
months of the year, compared to 30 for the whole of 1993.

But a community watchdog, the Citizens Action Against Crime,
listed at least 27 cases since the start of the year, including
four this month alone which it said involved "big amounts of
ransom."