Rival claimants show coolness to UN-brokered solution for Spratlys
Rival claimants show coolness to UN-brokered solution for Spratlys
By Martin Abbugao
MANILA (AFP): Coolness shown by rival claimants to South China Sea territories towards a proposal for a UN-brokered solution has one foreign policy expert warning that a prolonged stalemate could increase the dangers of armed conflict.
Keith Eirinberg, an analyst with the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, told a recent forum here that the United Nations was the only body capable of settling the dispute, citing its role in the peaceful transfer of power in Cambodia last year.
Talks for joint development of the Spratly islands chain in the South China Sea have been floating for years, he said, but no concrete steps have been taken under a regional framework to achieve this.
And the fledgling ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) Regional Forum has no capability to handle the problem at this point, he said.
"The United Nations has the experience in dealing with multiple claimants to disputed territories and it is an independent organization from ASEAN in which three, and possibly four, of the claimants are members," Eirinberg said.
The Spratlys, a string of atolls and coral reefs which are thought to be rich in oil and natural gas, are claimed wholly by China, Taiwan and Vietnam and in part by Brunei, Malaysia and the Philippines.
Three of the claimants belong to ASEAN, which groups Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. Eirinberg said China is concerned that Vietnam could soon become ASEAN's seventh member.
Eirinberg, a lawyer with extensive experience in the U.S. Navy, said ASEAN should convince China that it was in its "best interest" to agree to a UN deal at a time when Beijing is trying to fully integrate into the world system.
He also said China cannot take on ASEAN militarily at this point, stressing that "they can certainly harass (oil) rigs or defeat the Vietnamese in a skirmish, but they don't have the ability to stay in the area for a very long time."
Citing China's southward expansion since seizing the Paracel islands from former South Vietnam in 1974, Eirinberg stressed the urgency of a political solution "because the longer the discussions take place, the greater the chance that the Chinese will continue their push."
He described Beijing's call for joint development of the islands as a "delaying tactic" to strengthen its military capability, adding that "10 years from now, China will be strong enough" to ignore negotiations.
Claimants, however, are reluctant to the proposal, saying that a regional solution would be better but adding that China would likely oppose UN-sponsored talks.
Senior Vietnamese officials in Hanoi have voiced concern that discussions under the world body would be pointless without China's attendance.
A foreign ministry spokesman in Beijing said that internationalizing the issue would "only add complicated factors" which would erode the chances of an early political settlement.
"Our position is that we support a peaceful settlement of the issue, but a UN-brokered solution is not suitable for us because we are not a member of the United Nations," said Liao Li, spokesman of Taiwan's Interior Ministry.
But Eirinberg said that the Spratlys problem is already an international issue because the chain straddles the world's vital shipping lanes.
He suggested that claimant nations put aside the sovereignty dispute and work out agreements, such as joint ventures among state-owned oil firms, but exercise restraint in taking unilateral actions.
"Right now it's really a no-win situation," he said, explaining that the political and economic risks are expected to deter full development of the area's natural resources. "Solving the problem is a win-win situation for everybody."