Rival claimants show coolness to UN-brokered solution for Spratlys
Rival claimants show coolness to UN-brokered solution for Spratlys
By Martin Abbugao
MANILA (AFP): Coolness shown by rival claimants to South China
Sea territories towards a proposal for a UN-brokered solution has
one foreign policy expert warning that a prolonged stalemate
could increase the dangers of armed conflict.
Keith Eirinberg, an analyst with the Washington-based Center
for Strategic and International Studies, told a recent forum here
that the United Nations was the only body capable of settling the
dispute, citing its role in the peaceful transfer of power in
Cambodia last year.
Talks for joint development of the Spratly islands chain in
the South China Sea have been floating for years, he said, but no
concrete steps have been taken under a regional framework to
achieve this.
And the fledgling ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian
Nations) Regional Forum has no capability to handle the problem
at this point, he said.
"The United Nations has the experience in dealing with
multiple claimants to disputed territories and it is an
independent organization from ASEAN in which three, and possibly
four, of the claimants are members," Eirinberg said.
The Spratlys, a string of atolls and coral reefs which are
thought to be rich in oil and natural gas, are claimed wholly by
China, Taiwan and Vietnam and in part by Brunei, Malaysia and the
Philippines.
Three of the claimants belong to ASEAN, which groups Brunei,
Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand.
Eirinberg said China is concerned that Vietnam could soon become
ASEAN's seventh member.
Eirinberg, a lawyer with extensive experience in the U.S.
Navy, said ASEAN should convince China that it was in its "best
interest" to agree to a UN deal at a time when Beijing is trying
to fully integrate into the world system.
He also said China cannot take on ASEAN militarily at this
point, stressing that "they can certainly harass (oil) rigs or
defeat the Vietnamese in a skirmish, but they don't have the
ability to stay in the area for a very long time."
Citing China's southward expansion since seizing the Paracel
islands from former South Vietnam in 1974, Eirinberg stressed the
urgency of a political solution "because the longer the
discussions take place, the greater the chance that the Chinese
will continue their push."
He described Beijing's call for joint development of the
islands as a "delaying tactic" to strengthen its military
capability, adding that "10 years from now, China will be strong
enough" to ignore negotiations.
Claimants, however, are reluctant to the proposal, saying that
a regional solution would be better but adding that China would
likely oppose UN-sponsored talks.
Senior Vietnamese officials in Hanoi have voiced concern that
discussions under the world body would be pointless without
China's attendance.
A foreign ministry spokesman in Beijing said that
internationalizing the issue would "only add complicated factors"
which would erode the chances of an early political settlement.
"Our position is that we support a peaceful settlement of the
issue, but a UN-brokered solution is not suitable for us because
we are not a member of the United Nations," said Liao Li,
spokesman of Taiwan's Interior Ministry.
But Eirinberg said that the Spratlys problem is already an
international issue because the chain straddles the world's vital
shipping lanes.
He suggested that claimant nations put aside the sovereignty
dispute and work out agreements, such as joint ventures among
state-owned oil firms, but exercise restraint in taking
unilateral actions.
"Right now it's really a no-win situation," he said,
explaining that the political and economic risks are expected to
deter full development of the area's natural resources. "Solving
the problem is a win-win situation for everybody."