Thu, 18 Sep 2008

Andry Asmoro, Analyst

Interestingly, with the third quarter of 2008 almost out of the way we have seen some major highlights in macroeconomic indicators but only little attention in the way of the government's national program: Visit Indonesia Year 2008.

Let's face it, the tourism sector is simply unloved by the government who are preferring to focus on politics in the lead up to the 2009 elections. Many of us had forgotten we had such a grand program to promote our country's unique cultures and beautiful scenery.

However, in the spirit of the national tourism, let's recap the government's 2008 target of attracting 7 million foreign tourists to Indonesia -- which many said was completely unrealistic at the beginning of the year.

This was mainly because at the end of 2007 the total number of tourists recorded at its 11 main ports of entry was only about 4.3 million.

It was clear that the task of obtaining an additional 3 million in 2008 would be extremely difficult, not only because of lower global economic growth, but also on the back of the country's worsening domestic infrastructure.

Surprisingly, from a global perspective (according to UNWTO World Tourism Barometer) international tourism remained relatively stable and grew around 5 percent between January and April, 2008, compared to the same period in 2007.

All sub-regions posted positive results in the first four months of the year. Growth was fastest in the Middle East, North-East and South Asia, as well as Central and South America. Thus, the global economic imbalance appeared to have had relatively little impact on tourism in general -- at least thus far.

Moreover, a variety of destination countries around the globe had reported double-digit growth rates in the first three to five months of 2008, including countries in the Asia-Pacific like China, Japan, Korea, Macao (China), Cambodia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Fiji, India and Nepal.

So who were the visitors to Indonesia?

Taking a closer look at the profile of those who visited Indonesia, we learned that about 78 percent came from Asia, and 41 percent came from South East Asian (ASEAN) countries.

In fact, according to the 2007 Tourism Database, 45 percent of foreign visitors to ASEAN countries were originally from ASEAN countries.

The next biggest country/regional source of visitors to ASEAN countries were the European Union, China, Japan and Korea. In summary, Asian countries are the main sources of visitors to ASEAN countries or about 70 percent of the total.

The above figures show that the Indonesian tourism industry faces stiff competition from other ASEAN countries. The Central Statistics Agency recently announced that the total number of tourists who visited Indonesia in the first 7 months of this year had reached some 3.5 million people, an increase of 11.4 percent from a year earlier.

While this double-digit growth rate is higher than Malaysia's 3.9 percent over the same period, their total number of tourists, at 12.9 million, was nearly four times the number who came to Indonesia. Even Vietnam, a newcomer within the tourism space, managed to attract 2.62 million tourists over the same period.

If Indonesia's tourism industry does not receive sufficient attention from the government, Vietnam could overtake us in terms of numbers of visitors, within the next two to three years.

With intense competition from other ASEAN countries, the government of Malaysia spent almost US$80 million to promote their country. Singapore spent even more, having increased spending by $93.3 million to $316.2 million for its tourism promotion board this year.

And how much is the Government of Indonesia spending? A paltry $15 million.

In our view, spending to promote tourism has not been sufficient to win market share. There must be better coordination between Indonesian embassies overseas and local governments, to better promote Indonesia abroad and locally.

Improving Indonesia's image is a must.

Strategies to attract more visitors must be better formulated amid rising energy and food prices, which are likely to influence tourism spending.

But specific demand shifts -- determined by disposable income, travel budgets and confidence -- will vary from country to country, and from region to region, depending on local economies.

Proper studies must be implemented by the Indonesian tourism board and the government in order to implement targets for numbers of visitors into the country. Without this, Indonesia will continue to miss the boat.

The writer is a researcher at Bahana Securities