Rice shortage may reach 10 million tons: Scientist

Rice shortage may reach 10 million tons: Scientist

JAKARTA (JP): Indonesia may suffer a rice shortage of up to 10
million metric tons this year, or more than three times that
predicted by the government, a scientist has said.

"It's horrifying," agricultural climatologist Rizaldi Boer of
the Bogor Institute of Agriculture said in a discussion at The
Jakarta Post yesterday. "The government's planning has been based
on dubious data."

He referred to harvest predictions of rice planted during last
year's planting season beginning October through March this year.

The Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) and Ministry of
Agriculture estimated the average harvest failure was 13 percent
and to balance this 3.1 million tons would have to be imported,
Rizaldi said.

But such an estimation was "impossible" given last year's
drought that lingered through December, parching a vast area of
land, and the much-reported pests that plagued paddy fields, he
said.

Rizaldi showed "more accurate" data. He chose West Java as his
sample and put forward a rice harvest prediction based on April
satellite imaging from the National Aviation and Space Agency,
and compared his estimate with those of the statistics bureau.

Based on his data, Rizaldi predicted a 40 percent shortfall in
this year's rice harvest.

If this proves to be true, the country would have to import
"up to 10 million tons", he said, to feed the 202 million
population whose current annual per capita rice consumption is
130 kilograms.

He added local administrations had reported to the statistics
bureau that the area tilled from last February through March was
250,000 hectares. But satellite imaging showed only 30 percent of
the reported area was actually planted.

Of the 27 provinces' data on their rice harvest, only 12
reports were "realistic", Rizaldi said.

According to the agriculture ministry, which used the
province's estimates, this year's rice production would be about
46,290,461 tons, or an 86.9 percent yield of the targeted
53,243,003 tons.

The ministry added it could cover this shortfall by importing
3.1 million tons of rice.

"We cannot import it all if it is a shortage of more than 10
million tons (for we don't have the foreign exchange to pay for
it)," he said.

To address the shortage, the government could either import --
which may be impossible given its depleted foreign exchange
reserves -- or increase rice production, Rizaldi said.

"Special measures are being taken and will be carried out by
the government to increase national food production ... and from
the government's view, it's safely ahead," Rizaldi said.

But the government needed to use more accurate data on which
to base its predictions and planning for necessary measures to
deal with the rice shortage.

"Now which data do we want to use? The more data we have, the
more accurate satellite data we have, the more accurate
prediction we could have," Rizaldi said.

The problem with the satellite imaging was that it was too
expensive, costing about US3,000 for each shot, Rizaldi conceded
about the things he deemed "very much needed" for developing the
country's agricultural yield.

Accurate data could help decisionmakers, for instance, call
off planting in areas prone to flooding and allocate the
resources elsewhere instead, Rizaldi said.

He cited a number of government efforts to increase
production, including "intensification" that would boost
productivity and additional planting.

The latter measure was possible given the "wetter" dry season
induced by the La Nina global weather phenomenon, he said. (aan)