Rice shortage may reach 10 million tons: Scientist

JAKARTA (JP): Indonesia may suffer a rice shortage of up to 10 million metric tons this year, or more than three times that predicted by the government, a scientist has said.

"It's horrifying," agricultural climatologist Rizaldi Boer of the Bogor Institute of Agriculture said in a discussion at The Jakarta Post yesterday. "The government's planning has been based on dubious data."

He referred to harvest predictions of rice planted during last year's planting season beginning October through March this year.

The Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) and Ministry of Agriculture estimated the average harvest failure was 13 percent and to balance this 3.1 million tons would have to be imported, Rizaldi said.

But such an estimation was "impossible" given last year's drought that lingered through December, parching a vast area of land, and the much-reported pests that plagued paddy fields, he said.

Rizaldi showed "more accurate" data. He chose West Java as his sample and put forward a rice harvest prediction based on April satellite imaging from the National Aviation and Space Agency, and compared his estimate with those of the statistics bureau.

Based on his data, Rizaldi predicted a 40 percent shortfall in this year's rice harvest.

If this proves to be true, the country would have to import "up to 10 million tons", he said, to feed the 202 million population whose current annual per capita rice consumption is 130 kilograms.

He added local administrations had reported to the statistics bureau that the area tilled from last February through March was 250,000 hectares. But satellite imaging showed only 30 percent of the reported area was actually planted.

Of the 27 provinces' data on their rice harvest, only 12 reports were "realistic", Rizaldi said.

According to the agriculture ministry, which used the province's estimates, this year's rice production would be about 46,290,461 tons, or an 86.9 percent yield of the targeted 53,243,003 tons.

The ministry added it could cover this shortfall by importing 3.1 million tons of rice.

"We cannot import it all if it is a shortage of more than 10 million tons (for we don't have the foreign exchange to pay for it)," he said.

To address the shortage, the government could either import -- which may be impossible given its depleted foreign exchange reserves -- or increase rice production, Rizaldi said.

"Special measures are being taken and will be carried out by the government to increase national food production ... and from the government's view, it's safely ahead," Rizaldi said.

But the government needed to use more accurate data on which to base its predictions and planning for necessary measures to deal with the rice shortage.

"Now which data do we want to use? The more data we have, the more accurate satellite data we have, the more accurate prediction we could have," Rizaldi said.

The problem with the satellite imaging was that it was too expensive, costing about US3,000 for each shot, Rizaldi conceded about the things he deemed "very much needed" for developing the country's agricultural yield.

Accurate data could help decisionmakers, for instance, call off planting in areas prone to flooding and allocate the resources elsewhere instead, Rizaldi said.

He cited a number of government efforts to increase production, including "intensification" that would boost productivity and additional planting.

The latter measure was possible given the "wetter" dry season induced by the La Nina global weather phenomenon, he said. (aan)