Rice Production Forecast to Decline Through September 2026 as Harvest Area Shrinks

Indonesia’s rice production is expected to decline over the next three months due to a reduction in harvest area, according to the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). The potential harvest area for July to September 2026 is forecast at 3.15 million hectares, a decrease of 1.26% compared to the same period last year.

This contraction is projected to reduce paddy production by 0.90% to 16.25 million tonnes of dry unhusked rice (GKG), with rice production estimated at 9.36 million tonnes, down 0.88%.

“This forecast, based on the area sampling framework, may change depending on paddy planting conditions over the next three months,” said Deputy for Distribution and Services Statistics Ateng Hartono during a press conference in Jakarta on Monday. He noted that factors such as pest attacks, floods, drought, or changes in farmers’ harvest schedules could alter the outlook.

The projected decline contrasts with the actual harvest data for June 2026, which saw a 6.93% increase in harvested area to 0.84 million hectares compared to June 2025. This led to a 7.02% rise in paddy production to 4.29 million tonnes and a 6.96% increase in rice production to 2.47 million tonnes.

Cumulatively, the harvested area for January to June 2026 reached 6.31 million hectares, up 0.81% year-on-year. Paddy production for the first half of the year totalled 33.58 million tonnes, a 0.46% increase, while rice production reached 19.35 million tonnes, up 0.45%.