Rice harvest may be hit by La Nina

JAKARTA (JP): The La Nina weather phenomenon may cut rice production in 10 provinces as excessive rains induced by an unusual cool climate could delay or affect rice harvests in the areas next year, a senior government official at the Ministry of Agriculture said on Wednesday.

Director General of Food Crops and Horticulture Chairil Anwar Rasahan said that delays in planting and damage to rice fields could significantly cut rice production in the 10 provinces.

The provinces are Aceh, North and South Sumatra, Lampung, West, Central and East Java, West and East Kalimantan and South Sulawesi.

"We must be mindful because rice production in those provinces (usually) accounts for 50 percent of the country's total rice output," Chairil said in a news conference, adding that La Nina could begin this month and could last until early next year.

Chairil said 46 regencies in the 10 provinces were highly vulnerable to flooding.

He also said that 12 regencies in West Java, the country's main rice barn -- which produce 20 percent of the country's total production annually -- were highly vulnerable to flooding.

The regencies are Pandeglang, Serang, Tanggerang, Bekasi, Karawang, Subang, Indramayu, Bandung, Ciamis, Cirebon, Sukabumi and Sumedang.

La Nina, which means "little sister", arises from unusually cool temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and often follows the drought-inducing El Nino weather pattern. Its arrival brings about the threat of floods, violent tropical storms and landslides.

During the El Nino cycle last year, Indonesia experienced its most severe drought in 50 years. Forest fires burned uncontrolled on Sumatra and Kalimantan, and the country's agricultural production was seriously affected.

Indonesia's unhusked rice production is expected to drop by 5.94 percent this year to 46.44 million tons from 49.3 million tons in 1997, due to harvest failure caused by prolonged drought.

The country was forced to import 4.1 million tons of rice this 1998/1998 fiscal year to meet the supply shortage at home. the fiscal year ends in March.

Chairil said the Ministry of Agriculture and other relevant government agencies would immediately begin to draft contingency plans to address the affects of severe weather.

He said public works offices would identify areas prone to flooding and help residents prepare themselves and protect their crops and homes. He also said agricultural offices had disseminated recommendations on crop planting patterns.

"The likelihood of floods does not depend only on the intensity of rain, but also on the condition of water catchment areas and drainage systems in the regions. That's why we are cooperating with the Ministry of Public Works to upgrade dams, irrigation systems," he said.

He said agriculture ministry was also encouraging farmers to plant early in order to harvest by the end of this year.

Chairil also warned of the possibility of crop damage by La Nina induced floods in China earlier this year could affect world rice supply next year. Twenty-two million hectares of fields were reportedly affected.

"Rice prices in the world market will, therefore, increase sharply due to a decline in supplies. It will exacerbate our rice supply because we'll have to spend more to import," he said.

The ministry's Director of Plant Protection Sutarto Alimoeso said there was more than a 65 percent probability that La Nina would cause floods in Indonesia.

He recalled that Indonesia was hit by floods attributed to La Nina in the first two months of 1996. Rainfall in that year was "about 20 percent above normal", he said.

"It's unlikely that this year's La Nina will be as extreme, but who knows. We'll have to wait until December to know whether it is an extreme or moderate La Nina," he said. (gis)