Rice harvest may be hit by La Nina
Rice harvest may be hit by La Nina
JAKARTA (JP): The La Nina weather phenomenon may cut rice
production in 10 provinces as excessive rains induced by an
unusual cool climate could delay or affect rice harvests in the
areas next year, a senior government official at the Ministry of
Agriculture said on Wednesday.
Director General of Food Crops and Horticulture Chairil Anwar
Rasahan said that delays in planting and damage to rice fields
could significantly cut rice production in the 10 provinces.
The provinces are Aceh, North and South Sumatra, Lampung,
West, Central and East Java, West and East Kalimantan and South
Sulawesi.
"We must be mindful because rice production in those provinces
(usually) accounts for 50 percent of the country's total rice
output," Chairil said in a news conference, adding that La Nina
could begin this month and could last until early next year.
Chairil said 46 regencies in the 10 provinces were highly
vulnerable to flooding.
He also said that 12 regencies in West Java, the country's
main rice barn -- which produce 20 percent of the country's total
production annually -- were highly vulnerable to flooding.
The regencies are Pandeglang, Serang, Tanggerang, Bekasi,
Karawang, Subang, Indramayu, Bandung, Ciamis, Cirebon, Sukabumi
and Sumedang.
La Nina, which means "little sister", arises from unusually
cool temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and often follows the
drought-inducing El Nino weather pattern. Its arrival brings
about the threat of floods, violent tropical storms and
landslides.
During the El Nino cycle last year, Indonesia experienced its
most severe drought in 50 years. Forest fires burned uncontrolled
on Sumatra and Kalimantan, and the country's agricultural
production was seriously affected.
Indonesia's unhusked rice production is expected to drop by
5.94 percent this year to 46.44 million tons from 49.3 million
tons in 1997, due to harvest failure caused by prolonged drought.
The country was forced to import 4.1 million tons of rice this
1998/1998 fiscal year to meet the supply shortage at home. the
fiscal year ends in March.
Chairil said the Ministry of Agriculture and other relevant
government agencies would immediately begin to draft contingency
plans to address the affects of severe weather.
He said public works offices would identify areas prone to
flooding and help residents prepare themselves and protect their
crops and homes. He also said agricultural offices had
disseminated recommendations on crop planting patterns.
"The likelihood of floods does not depend only on the
intensity of rain, but also on the condition of water catchment
areas and drainage systems in the regions. That's why we are
cooperating with the Ministry of Public Works to upgrade dams,
irrigation systems," he said.
He said agriculture ministry was also encouraging farmers to
plant early in order to harvest by the end of this year.
Chairil also warned of the possibility of crop damage by La
Nina induced floods in China earlier this year could affect world
rice supply next year. Twenty-two million hectares of fields were
reportedly affected.
"Rice prices in the world market will, therefore, increase
sharply due to a decline in supplies. It will exacerbate our rice
supply because we'll have to spend more to import," he said.
The ministry's Director of Plant Protection Sutarto Alimoeso
said there was more than a 65 percent probability that La Nina
would cause floods in Indonesia.
He recalled that Indonesia was hit by floods attributed to La
Nina in the first two months of 1996. Rainfall in that year was
"about 20 percent above normal", he said.
"It's unlikely that this year's La Nina will be as extreme,
but who knows. We'll have to wait until December to know whether
it is an extreme or moderate La Nina," he said. (gis)