RI will benefit from demographic dividend: Expert

RI will benefit from demographic dividend: Expert

Urip Hudiono, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

The government must carefully plan its development policies over
the next decade, focusing on human resource improvements, to
utilize a rare opportunity in boosting the nation's productivity
when the population experiences its lowest dependency ratio ever.

Indonesian Demographic Experts Association chairman, Prijono
Tjiptoherijanto, said on Tuesday that Indonesia was about to
undergo a phenomenon known as a "demographic dividend", in which
the proportion between people in their productive age and those
who are no longer productive will be the lowest ever.

"This demographic dividend, which demographers usually call a
window of opportunity, due to its potential benefits to the
economy, only happens once in a nation's lifetime," he said
before a panel discussion at the launching of the Indonesian
Population Projection 2000-2025 report.

"For Indonesia, the period in which the nation will have its
lowest dependency ratio will only occur for around a five-year
period, between 2015 and 2020."

The report was prepared by the National Development Planning
Agency (Bappenas) in cooperation with the Central Statistics
Agency (BPS) and the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA).

According to the report, which was made public on Tuesday by
President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono at the State Palace, the
country's population is estimated to reach 273.65 million in
2025, with a life expectancy of 73.7 years, a total fertility
rate (TFR) of 2.07 births per woman and an infant mortality rate
(IMR) of 15 for every 1,000 births.

Indonesia's population currently stands at 220 million, with a
life expectancy of 69 years, a TFR of 2.23 and an IMR of 32.

Prijono said since there was a relatively low life expectancy,
Indonesia's workforce would be expected to increase in volume and
productivity -- thus boosting economic growth and overall
prosperity -- as that dependency ratio would eventually decline.

"The ratio will only be some 44 percent, but will then rise
again after 2020," he said.

Indonesia's current dependency ratio is 49.8 percent, meaning
that for every 100 persons in the productive age between 15 to 64
will only have to support 49.8 unproductive people.

For this, Prijono said, the government should continue its
family planning program, to control the population and match the
anticipated demographic dividend with its development policies.

"The government must also increase labor-intensive investment
projects to prevent the abundant workforce from turning instead
into an unemployment explosion with all its nasty economic and
social side effects," he said.

Similarly speaking, Sri Moertiningsih Adioetomo of the
University of Indonesia's Department of Economic Demography
Institute said the demographic dividend would be economically
beneficial as the more productive and prosperous workforce would
increase the country's public savings.

"These savings can then be invested to further finance the
country's development projects," she said. "Meanwhile, women's
participation in the nation's development would also increase as
the lower dependency ratio means more women would be able to
work."

She noted, however, that the opportunity could fade away if
the government did not prepare for it right away, particularly in
improving the country's human resource capacity through education
and providing adequate work and skills training.

The UN currently ranks Indonesia as one of the nations with
the lowest human development index. Being debt-ridden and cash-
strapped, the government also has a great amount of difficulty in
providing more budget allocations to educate the population
properly.