RI told not to develop atomic plant
RI told not to develop atomic plant
JAKARTA (JP): Indonesia will be facing an energy crisis in the near future due to high economic growth, but it need not resort to nuclear energy, as it is rich in other energy resources, an energy analyst said yesterday.
"With economic growth running at seven percent, our energy consumption will increase by 7.28 percent. But production growth of primary energy is only at three percent," energy analyst Prof. Dr. Soebroto told the press after a luncheon meeting held by PT Redecon here yesterday.
He pointed out that a great deal of energy is needed to accelerate high economic growth. The energy needed depends on the elasticity of the energy consumption and the income of the people.
Subroto quoted economist Dr. Hadi Soesastro of CSIS (Centre for Strategic and International Studies) as saying in a seminar last year that the current elasticity is 1.04. This means that economic growth of one percentage point will increase energy consumption by 1.04%.
Since annual economic growth is projected at 7% for the course of the current longterm development program (25 years, starting in April 1994) Indonesia's energy consumption will increase by 7.28 percent a year.
"As the production of primary energy is only about 3%, we'll see a discrepancy of 4.28 percent," he noted.
Nonetheless, he added, Indonesia doesn't need to build a nuclear power plant to meet the shortfall, referring to the planned nuclear power plant in Central Java.
The director general of the National Atomic Energy (BATAN), Djali Ahimsa, said Indonesia will need between seven and 12 nuclear reactors to help provide the 27,000 megawatts of electricity energy needed by homes and industry in Java and Bali in the foreseeable future.
But Subroto, a former minister of mines and energy and former secretary general of OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries), argued that nuclear plants are very costly.
"We have other energy resources that can be exploited to generate enough electricity for our needs," said Subroto.
He said that Indonesia had 60 sedimentary basins -- 21 in the western part and 39 in the eastern part -- that are believed to contain petroleum and natural gas equivalent to 84.5 billion barrels of oil -- 48.4 billion barrels of petroleum and 216.8 trillion feet cubic of natural gas.
Indonesia also has large coal deposits. Proven reserves are estimated at 4.6 billion tons and measured reserves are estimated to reach 36.6 billion.
Hydropower -- a renewable energy -- can generate some 75,000 Mega Watt (MW) of electricity.
Subroto noted that until now, Indonesia has only utilized some 3,245 MW or 4.3 percent of the hydropower potential.
"Our country also has other renewable energy sources, such as geothermal power. All over Indonesia, this energy is estimated at 16,000 MW, 50 percent of which in Java," he noted.
Subroto added that Indonesia is only using 309 MW of its geothermal potential to generate electricity. In comparison, the Philippines uses 1,075 MW of its geothermal resources, while the United States uses 2,928.5 MW.
He said that Indonesia only needs to attract investment for exploration and exploitation of its energy reserves. "We should create fertile conditions," he said.
"We should learn from non-OPEC countries, such as Britain, Norway, Malaysia, Columbia, Argentina, or Brazil," he stated.
These countries, he noted, managed to increase their energy production through the application of the latest technology, better energy management and incentives for investors.
Competition to attract foreign investment for the exploitation of energy is getting tougher. "Only countries with more attractive incentives will attract badly-needed investment," he said, adding that the government should create a win-win situation in its energy policy.
He said that the government should review its concept of production-sharing arrangements for foreign investors in the hydrocarbon sector. (13)
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