RI, post-Shanghai

RI, post-Shanghai

For the first time in its 12-year history, the meeting of the
Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum just concluded in
Shanghai came out with an official statement that is not strictly
of an economic nature. The fact that U.S. President George W.
Bush made a special effort to be present -- it was his first
foreign trip since the horrendous Sept. 11 terrorist attacks in
New York and Washington -- made it abundantly clear that the
Shanghai meeting would issue a strong statement regarding
terrorism.

Although perhaps for the U.S. that document did not meet all
of its wishes -- it left out any mention of an alliance to combat
money laundering and it did not refer directly to the U.S.-led
war in Afghanistan -- the Shanghai antiterrorist statement
nevertheless constituted a diplomatic gain for Washington and its
coalition partners. Sources close to President Megawati
Soekarnoputri like to suggest that it was due to the combined
efforts of Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei Darussalam -- countries
with significant Muslim majorities -- that references to the U.S.
military operations in Afghanistan were omitted from the Shanghai
statement.

Be that as it may, we would like to point out that compared
with that of the two other countries of ASEAN, Indonesia's
economic and financial position is the weakest. In other words, a
thorough evaluation should be made at this stage of whether
Washington's irritation toward Jakarta caused by President
Megawati's Isra Mi'raj (Prophet Muhammad's ascension day) speech
on Oct. 15 has affected Indonesia's position with regard to its
crucial efforts to rehabilitate its economy.

Although Megawati's inability to have a bilateral meeting with
President George Bush in Shanghai should not perhaps be regarded
as a diplomatic snub -- she did obtain a photo opportunity -- we
strongly suggest that President Megawati's future speeches
regarding foreign policy be thoroughly prepared.

In this context, Minister of Foreign Affairs Hassan Wirayuda's
statement that the U.S. should cease its military operations in
Afghanistan before the start of the holy month of Ramadhan around
Nov. 17 deserves serious attention. It was no exaggeration for
him to say that to continue military operations during Ramadhan
could arouse explosive reactions in Muslim countries around the
world. "Ramadhan is a suitable time for Muslim adherents to
pledge and express their solidarity," Minister Wirayuda stated.

However, we wonder whether he can also be sure that Osama bin
Laden and his Al-Qaeda network will also refrain from launching
new terrorist attacks during the month of Ramadhan. Given the
warnings provided by western intelligence communities on the
basis of intercepts of communication of Osama bin Laden's
associates that more attacks could be forthcoming, and
considering the unilateral interpretation of religious doctrines
by bin Laden and his associates, we cannot be too sure that they
too will refrain from attacking during the month of Ramadhan.

All in all, we do think that the U.S. and its coalition
allies, strengthened by the Shanghai declaration on terrorism,
are now in a most advantageous position to seek approval from the
UN Security Council for this war against terrorism. A cover
resolution that would embrace all facets of this total war
against terrorism would enable moderate Muslim countries and even
some members of the European Union, which have felt slighted by
the recent presummit gathering of French, British and German
leaders in Ghent, to participate more wholeheartedly in this
total war against terrorism. Ultimately, it will serve their own
respective interests as well.