RI, post-Shanghai

For the first time in its 12-year history, the meeting of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum just concluded in Shanghai came out with an official statement that is not strictly of an economic nature. The fact that U.S. President George W. Bush made a special effort to be present -- it was his first foreign trip since the horrendous Sept. 11 terrorist attacks in New York and Washington -- made it abundantly clear that the Shanghai meeting would issue a strong statement regarding terrorism.

Although perhaps for the U.S. that document did not meet all of its wishes -- it left out any mention of an alliance to combat money laundering and it did not refer directly to the U.S.-led war in Afghanistan -- the Shanghai antiterrorist statement nevertheless constituted a diplomatic gain for Washington and its coalition partners. Sources close to President Megawati Soekarnoputri like to suggest that it was due to the combined efforts of Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei Darussalam -- countries with significant Muslim majorities -- that references to the U.S. military operations in Afghanistan were omitted from the Shanghai statement.

Be that as it may, we would like to point out that compared with that of the two other countries of ASEAN, Indonesia's economic and financial position is the weakest. In other words, a thorough evaluation should be made at this stage of whether Washington's irritation toward Jakarta caused by President Megawati's Isra Mi'raj (Prophet Muhammad's ascension day) speech on Oct. 15 has affected Indonesia's position with regard to its crucial efforts to rehabilitate its economy.

Although Megawati's inability to have a bilateral meeting with President George Bush in Shanghai should not perhaps be regarded as a diplomatic snub -- she did obtain a photo opportunity -- we strongly suggest that President Megawati's future speeches regarding foreign policy be thoroughly prepared.

In this context, Minister of Foreign Affairs Hassan Wirayuda's statement that the U.S. should cease its military operations in Afghanistan before the start of the holy month of Ramadhan around Nov. 17 deserves serious attention. It was no exaggeration for him to say that to continue military operations during Ramadhan could arouse explosive reactions in Muslim countries around the world. "Ramadhan is a suitable time for Muslim adherents to pledge and express their solidarity," Minister Wirayuda stated.

However, we wonder whether he can also be sure that Osama bin Laden and his Al-Qaeda network will also refrain from launching new terrorist attacks during the month of Ramadhan. Given the warnings provided by western intelligence communities on the basis of intercepts of communication of Osama bin Laden's associates that more attacks could be forthcoming, and considering the unilateral interpretation of religious doctrines by bin Laden and his associates, we cannot be too sure that they too will refrain from attacking during the month of Ramadhan.

All in all, we do think that the U.S. and its coalition allies, strengthened by the Shanghai declaration on terrorism, are now in a most advantageous position to seek approval from the UN Security Council for this war against terrorism. A cover resolution that would embrace all facets of this total war against terrorism would enable moderate Muslim countries and even some members of the European Union, which have felt slighted by the recent presummit gathering of French, British and German leaders in Ghent, to participate more wholeheartedly in this total war against terrorism. Ultimately, it will serve their own respective interests as well.