RI has weak president, troubled economy: Expert

JAKARTA (JP): Indonesia has a weak president, a tarnished military and a troubled economy -- but such a sorry state of affairs actually provides a window of opportunity to prevent the rise of yet another strongman ruler who causes people suffering, a political scientist has concluded.

Dewi Fortuna Anwar from the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI) also told an international conference on democratization in Indonesia that people now had an opportunity to decrease the military's involvement in politics.

She pointed out that unlike in the country's previous transition of power in the 1960s, when Sukarno was replaced by another strongman, Soeharto, in May 1998 power was transferred to a man widely regarded as a weak leader.

"...now the government is in the hands of President B.J. Habibie who is regarded as a weak leader with no major political force of his own and whose term in office is very limited," Dewi said.

"While in earlier times the state was always stronger than society, now the reverse is true," she said. "The troubles faced by the military and its overall lack of credibility because of human rights abuses compound the impression of a relatively weak state on the one hand and an increasingly powerful civil society on the other."

"There is now... an opportunity to prevent the rise of another strongman and personal rule once and for all, as well as to reduce the military's involvement in politics.

"The way is now open... to take part in shaping the country's future political system," said Dewi, who is also the foreign affairs assistant to the Minister/State Secretary.

Dewi was one of a number of illustrious political commentators attending the three-day conference opened by LIPI director Soefjan Tsauri. Minister of Education Juwono Sudarsono spoke yesterday, as did Daniel Dhakidae, Mochtar Pabottingi, and Y.B. Mangunwijaya.

International speakers in the discussion included R. William Liddle and Richard Gunther from Ohio State University, Harold Crouch from the Australian National University, Daniel S. Lev from University of Washington in Seattle, and Juan J. Linz from Yale University.

Lev and Linz, in an interview with Antara, said the Armed Forces (ABRI) involvement in national politics had "distorted" democratization here.

"A country whose political leader is a military man would see a great distortion," Lev said, expressing his relief upon hearing that a recent ABRI leadership meeting had decided to reduce the sociopolitical role of the military.

"That's progress for Indonesian politics and democratization... and should be welcomed," he said. "I see the current ABRI leaders as a group of professionals who want to encourage professionalism among their soldiers. But this will not be easy and will take time."

He cited the fact that many of ABRI's senior figures were currently enjoying a high political profile and might therefore want to maintain the status quo.

Linz said democratization should proceed naturally and without coercion. "What's important is that the police, the courts and the bureaucracy function well so that leaders cannot force everything from above."

Mangunwijaya, who is better known as Father Mangun, told the seminar yesterday how the push for reform that helped force Soeharto to step aside should be followed by a reform in mentality and an overhaul of the whole political system.

Among the first steps that need to be taken is a revision of the Constitution, he said.

He pointed out that Soeharto's cronies were still in power and the system that he built remained in place.

"To rebuild Indonesia we need a new collective mentality, free from the damage caused by 30 years of brainwashing in an era of violence, intrigue, foul play and dishonest politics," he said. (swe)