RI has tough task in keep both China, Japan happy
Kornelius Purba, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta
In the early 1990s, president Soeharto's New Order regime teamed up with the United States to stymie Malaysia's regional ambitions. Flash forward to this week and Indonesia and the rising rivalry between China and Japan will very likely be the biggest stumbling blocks to Malaysia's ambition to play a larger role in the ASEAN regional grouping.
Malaysian Minister of Trade and Industry Rafidah Aziz may very well be disappointed again on Wednesday when her country has to delay its 15-year ambition to play a leading role in the establishment of the East Asian Community. In the same Cabinet position in 1990, she was fully involved from the beginning when then prime minister Mahathir Mohamad introduced his idea to form the East Asian Economic Grouping (EAEG).
Then president Soeharto, in his typical Javanese way, vetoed Mahathir's idea simply by saying during a meeting in Jakarta on Feb. 5, 1991, that he "understands prime minister Mahathir's idea".
The United States opposed the trading bloc because of Mahathir's refusal to include the superpower in the regional grouping, which was envisioned as a challenger to the U.S. and Europe. Indonesia was concerned with the U.S. opposition, but Soeharto also did not want to see ASEAN -- which Indonesia dominated -- sidelined by the EAEG.
Although initially Soeharto also was reluctant to join another regional grouping, this one initiated by Australia, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) held its first summit in Seattle, the U.S., in 1993. As a reward to Soeharto for getting on board with the grouping, Indonesia hosted the second APEC summit in Bogor, West Java, in November 1994.
When President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono attends the annual summit of the 10-country Association of Southeast Asian Nations in Kuala Lumpur this week, which will also include the first East Asian Community (EAC) summit on Wednesday, he is expected to take a page out of Soeharto's playbook and let his host, Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi, know he is opposed to the formal establishment of the East Asian Community as it now stands.
The EAC summit will also be attended by China, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand.
In his first appearance at an ASEAN summit as President last year in Viantiane, Laos, Susilo reportedly committed a "slip of the tongue" when he agreed to Malaysia's proposal to host the EAC summit, although his chief diplomat, Hassan Wirajuda, had told him Indonesia should reject the idea or at least delay the plan. Indonesia worries the EAC could disrupt ASEAN's commitment to create the ASEAN Community by 2020 and that ASEAN would not be in the "driver's seat" in the EAC. As a newcomer, perhaps Susilo felt uneasy saying "no" to other leaders.
Malaysia actually insisted that EAC membership be limited to the 10 ASEAN states -- Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar -- and its three dialog partners, China, Japan and South Korea. China shared Malaysia's position.
Similar to its position in the early 1990s, Indonesia wanted an EAC with a larger and more flexible membership -- like a consultative group. Indonesia fears the rivalry between China and Japan would affect ASEAN if the EAC membership was limited to 13 countries.
Jakarta wants other countries like India and Australia to be invited to join the grouping, to counter China and Japan. Realizing it would not be able to face off against China alone, Japan supports Indonesia's position on the larger membership. Singapore is also close to Indonesia's position for its own strategic interests.
Indonesia realizes that China is the main destination for its exports and also a giant source of investment, and that it is only a matter of time before Japan is left behind by China in terms of economic ties -- excluding the Official Development Assistance, through which Japan is world's largest money lender -- with Indonesia. Japan is today still the most important trading partner for Indonesia, but this relationship is limited mainly to manufacturing and raw materials, while the relationship with China is much more varied.
What can Indonesia get as a "reward" from Japan for its position on the EAC? Well, the Japanese government is stepping up its campaign to persuade Japanese private firms to invest more in Indonesia. Tokyo also plans more infrastructure loans for Indonesia, though that also means more loans for the already heavily indebted country. For the time being it is very difficult to expect more investment from Japan, because Japanese investors still see China as the most attractive investment destination in the world.
"Japan is like an overjealous first wife, who will do anything to make sure that she is more attractive then her husband's new lover. But this can be dangerous if the husband fails to manage the first wife," a diplomat joked in describing the situation between Indonesia, Japan and China.
Indonesia also must be cautious not to upset China, which could result in severe economic consequences.
If this "polygamous" relationship is not handled with great care, both China and Japan could choose to "divorce" Indonesia.
The writer can be reached at purba@thejakartapost.com