RI foreign policy: What's in store for 1996
RI foreign policy: What's in store for 1996
JAKARTA (JP): Compared to the previous two years, 1996 will likely see a slight dimming of the spotlight on foreign policy.
No longer does Indonesia chair the 113-nation Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), although the country will remain a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council.
What will remain is the glare of East Timor.
The first major event coming up is the Asia-European Summit in March which will be attended by members of the European Union and several Asian states.
Since the Asian side is being organized by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Indonesia and the six other member states -- Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam -- can be expected to play a key role in the meeting in Bangkok.
While economic matters are likely to be the central topic, political issues, particularly human rights, will surely arise.
Kusnanto Anggoro predicts the East Timor issue will be brought up at the summit, if only on the fringe.
He believes there will be no respite from the international scrutiny of East Timor.
Indonesia and Portugal will meet for the sixth UN sponsored talk on finding a solution to the issue.
While these talks have increased confidence between the two countries, they seem to be a long way from a solution which would grant Indonesia an abeyance from criticism.
As the Indonesian Institute of Sciences' Dewi Fortuna Anwar poignantly said, "the problem of East Timor lies not with Deplu (the foreign ministry) but with Hankam (ministry of defense and security)."
Though Indonesia no longer chairs NAM, it has asserted that it will continue the positive role it exhibited during the past three years.
NAM now has a troika consultative scheme which brings together the past, present and future leaders -- Indonesia, Colombia and South Africa.
Though its success has been limited, Indonesia will also continue to coordinate common positions through the NAM Caucus in the UN Security Council.
It remains to be seen how much attention Indonesia will pour into NAM and whether the reason the NAM bureau at the foreign ministry has not been dissolved is to maintain strong support or just because of a lack of time.
The most interesting question is whether Indonesia will step up its campaign to get a permanent seat in an expanded Security Council.
Minister of Foreign Affairs Ali Alatas insists that Indonesia fulfills the appropriate criteria for permanent membership and therefore should be considered.
Analysts believe that if a permanent seat is given to an Asian country, other than Japan, Indonesia would be in close competition with India.
The year could be a turning point in choosing either to maintain quiet diplomacy or embark on a full-fledged campaign to seek the coveted position.
Another important outlet for foreign policy will continue to be ASEAN.
In December ASEAN heads of government will meet here for their first ever informal summit. The summit, tentatively scheduled in Bogor, will bring together all 10 leaders in Southeast Asia for the second time.
Despite these scheduled events, many analysts were at a loss for words when asked to sum-up the direction of Indonesian foreign policy in the coming year.
Overall they believed Indonesia has passed its high point in foreign policy, at least in terms of exposure.
They noted that things will naturally focus inwards as the countdown to the 1997 general election gets under way.
Hero Kuntjoro-Jakti said that after the Cambodian peace process ended, in which Indonesian played an important part, the country seemed to be slightly wayward.
"Once Cambodia was over, it's as if we didn't know where we're going. Then we just began grasping at straws with NAM and by seeking a permanent seat in the Security Counsel," he remarked.(mds)