RI foreign policy: What's in store for 1996

RI foreign policy: What's in store for 1996

JAKARTA (JP): Compared to the previous two years, 1996 will
likely see a slight dimming of the spotlight on foreign policy.

No longer does Indonesia chair the 113-nation Non-Aligned
Movement (NAM), although the country will remain a non-permanent
member of the UN Security Council.

What will remain is the glare of East Timor.

The first major event coming up is the Asia-European Summit in
March which will be attended by members of the European Union and
several Asian states.

Since the Asian side is being organized by the Association of
Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Indonesia and the six other
member states -- Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore,
Thailand and Vietnam -- can be expected to play a key role in the
meeting in Bangkok.

While economic matters are likely to be the central topic,
political issues, particularly human rights, will surely arise.

Kusnanto Anggoro predicts the East Timor issue will be brought
up at the summit, if only on the fringe.

He believes there will be no respite from the international
scrutiny of East Timor.

Indonesia and Portugal will meet for the sixth UN sponsored
talk on finding a solution to the issue.

While these talks have increased confidence between the two
countries, they seem to be a long way from a solution which would
grant Indonesia an abeyance from criticism.

As the Indonesian Institute of Sciences' Dewi Fortuna Anwar
poignantly said, "the problem of East Timor lies not with Deplu
(the foreign ministry) but with Hankam (ministry of defense and
security)."

Though Indonesia no longer chairs NAM, it has asserted that it
will continue the positive role it exhibited during the past
three years.

NAM now has a troika consultative scheme which brings together
the past, present and future leaders -- Indonesia, Colombia and
South Africa.

Though its success has been limited, Indonesia will also
continue to coordinate common positions through the NAM Caucus in
the UN Security Council.

It remains to be seen how much attention Indonesia will pour
into NAM and whether the reason the NAM bureau at the foreign
ministry has not been dissolved is to maintain strong support or
just because of a lack of time.

The most interesting question is whether Indonesia will step
up its campaign to get a permanent seat in an expanded Security
Council.

Minister of Foreign Affairs Ali Alatas insists that Indonesia
fulfills the appropriate criteria for permanent membership and
therefore should be considered.

Analysts believe that if a permanent seat is given to an Asian
country, other than Japan, Indonesia would be in close
competition with India.

The year could be a turning point in choosing either to
maintain quiet diplomacy or embark on a full-fledged campaign to
seek the coveted position.

Another important outlet for foreign policy will continue to
be ASEAN.

In December ASEAN heads of government will meet here for their
first ever informal summit. The summit, tentatively scheduled in
Bogor, will bring together all 10 leaders in Southeast Asia for
the second time.

Despite these scheduled events, many analysts were at a loss
for words when asked to sum-up the direction of Indonesian
foreign policy in the coming year.

Overall they believed Indonesia has passed its high point in
foreign policy, at least in terms of exposure.

They noted that things will naturally focus inwards as the
countdown to the 1997 general election gets under way.

Hero Kuntjoro-Jakti said that after the Cambodian peace
process ended, in which Indonesian played an important part, the
country seemed to be slightly wayward.

"Once Cambodia was over, it's as if we didn't know where we're
going. Then we just began grasping at straws with NAM and by
seeking a permanent seat in the Security Counsel," he
remarked.(mds)