RI braces for millennium bug
It will be 293 days into the year 2000 when information- technology (IT) systems worldwide in many critical areas like business, government, education, and industry may crash -- putting the organizations they support on hold, at best, or out of business, at worst -- unless they manage to solve the so- called millennium bug, or damage caused by non-compliance of computers and microprocessors in embedded electronic systems to the Year 2000 Problem (Y2K). The Jakarta Post's Reiner S., Johannes Simbolon, Primastuti Handayani, Cornelius Purba, Ida Indawati Khouw, Wachyudi Soeriaatmadja, and photographer IGGP Bayu Ismoyo examine how and what Indonesia is doing to solve the Y2K issue.
JAKARTA (JP): Predictions about what will happen come 12:00:01 a.m. Saturday, Jan. 1, 2000, range from an end of civilization to not much at all.
Doomsayers foresee a breakdown of economic and financial markets. Malfunctioning computers, they believe will erase vast sums of wealth from individual bank and brokerage accounts, causing bankruptcies and depression and, ultimately, leading to civil unrest.
Telecommunications systems will be knocked out and power grids will go off, making it difficult for governments to cope with emergencies. The pessimists advise stockpiling food, water, and logistics in remote mountain and desert hideaways.
The less alarmist, on the other hand, say that Jan. 1, 2000, will be just another day that will come in with a yawn, not a global disaster. They believe that the whole Y2K issue is nothing more than a giant hoax by IT vendors pitched to hysterical levels to raise revenues. But they do admit that Y2K poses a serious problem for many business computer systems -- the systems will not fail but will start spouting out incorrect date-related data.
Oracle technologies manager Hasnur Ramadhan in Jakarta says: "The truth is that no one can really know exactly what will happen as we enter the turn of the century."
"It's a better to have a safe than sorry philosophy, even if we in Indonesia are less computerized than in the U.S.," adds Oracle Sales director Tony Chen.
So how is Indonesia doing so far in handling the Y2K issue?
"Frankly speaking, we're already late. But there are things that we can still do," says Ichyar Musa, head of the national Y2K awareness division, a unit of the government task force in handling the Y2k issue, which is chaired by Minister of Communications Giri Suseno Hadihardjono.
He explains that the task force is now focusing on solving the Y2K problem in top priority sectors and at the same time preparing contingency plans on how to deal in emergency situation.
"There's no more time for arguing. We have to start now with contingency plans," he adds.
He expects all industries and public utilities to be ready with their contingency plans by October.
"We have to be prepared for the fact that there will be a deterioration in the telecommunications service. The basic service may still be running but sophisticated data communications service may be at risk," he points out.
"It's also advisable for banks to print all accounts to prevent disputes," he adds.
Ichyar believes that although the authority has yet to announce the Y2K status of the country's airlines, they will solve the problem on time because of the industry's high security and safety requirements.
"One thing that concerns me is the air traffic control system at airports. If we fail, no airlines will land here. Jakarta will be a black spot. It's all about losing a reputation," he says.
In addition to the above industries, the task force has put priority on the financial sector, pharmacy and hospital sector, energy, water and gas, the fertilizer industry, defense and security, and the government sector.
"We put the government sector last on our list because we have prioritized public utilities," Ichyar says.
"You can imagine what will happen if the banking industry is Y2K-ready but the telecommunications and electricity facilities are not," he points out.
He explains that the most difficult aspect to tackle in relation to the banking sector was not the concern of a failure in providing services but how to assure the public that the industry can solve the Y2K issue.
"This non-technical problem has to be dealt with or else we may face a massive run on the banks," he says.
He says that the central bank would start due diligence of the Y2K readiness of the country's commercial banks in late April when the recapitalization program has been completed.
"From there Bank Indonesia will take the necessary measures," he adds.
"I expect the public not to panic. Y2K is a problem and we're doing something about it," he says.
"But the government must also be resolute. We must have a contingency plan. The government must also gain public trust in what it's saying. Speak honestly and frankly," he says.
The U.S.-based Gartner Group, a Y2K-compliance monitoring body, said in a recent report that Indonesia was among some 30 developing nations which have the highest risk to Y2K with some 66 percent of business possibly affected.
Tranggono I.S. Turner, an IT expert at the STIMIK Perbanas computer institute, attributes this to the low awareness among both the political leaders and top level management in industries concerning the Y2K issue.
"The country's economic and political crisis has also become a factor in causing slowness in dealing with the problem," he says.
Husein Samy, general manager for systems, software and solutions at USI/IBM, concurs that convincing top level people to provide budgets for dealing with Y2K is difficult.
"I have been asked many times to convince top level management that Y2K is a serious problem but I often fail," he says.
Ichyar says that many business leaders tend to be reluctant in dealing with the Y2K issue because it is regarded as spending without creating added value.
Hermawan Tendean, an IT expert at Bank BCA, says that this is a pity because time is essential in coming up with an efficient and effective solution to a company's Y2K problem.
BCA is among the country's limited companies which have announced Y2K readiness.
"Without enough time, money and other resources would not mean much in dealing with Y2K," Hermawan says.
He explains that the awareness building measure in BCA's top level management was started in 1996 and they gave the green light to go ahead with dealing with Y2K at the end of the year.
"The top management appointed a team leader who could say no to non-priority spending in order to save resources," he says, adding that the budget for Y2K at the bank was around $2 million.
Among the country's top political leaders there also seems no sense of urgency in dealing with the Y2K issue.
Minister/State Secretary Akbar Tandjung just smiled when asked about the issue. "Your question is strange," he told the Jakarta Post in response, before attending a Cabinet meeting on Thursday. Other ministers were similarly indifferent.
Only Minister of Communications Giri Suseno responded to questions. "We have finished collating all matters related to the millennium bug and I will convey my report to the President in this meeting," he told the Post.
He said that state companies like national flag carrier PT Garuda Indonesia, airport management PT Angkasa Pura, and port operator PT Pelindo have already made all the necessary preparations to solve the problem.
"The problems will be solved correctly and in a timely fashion," he said.
Can that really happen without strong political will particularly as the country is suffering from its worst economic crisis in three decades and facing a general election that may turn chaotic?
"I think the criteria for the next President must include knowledge and commitment to solving the Y2K problem," says Ichyar.
Another obstacle to solving the problem is the huge capital outlay needed.
"We're still preparing a proposal to ask for aid from the World Bank and other multilateral and bilateral institutions," Ichyar says.
A government source says that the World Bank was particularly concerned to help finance the country's Y2k solution measures or its multi-billion dollar projects here might turn into complete failures as well. (team)