RI, a Southeast Asia 'giant' with feet of clay

RI, a Southeast Asia 'giant' with feet of clay

By Bantarto Bandoro

JAKARTA (JP): A giant is often understood as an imaginary
being of great stature. It is assumed to have the ability to
influence and apply pressure on others. Accordingly, it can, by
peaceful means or force, do whatever it wants to do without any
significant hindrance. A story of fiction often indicates that a
giant is a creature who can dictate and determine the lives and
fate of others.

Indonesia seems to carry weight with Southeast Asia countries.
Attention is paid to its voice. Indonesia's diplomatic history,
as seen for example in the konfrontasi incident, and its role in
regional reconciliation throughout the late sixties and early
seventies, established the country as a major power.

Being the most influential country in the region, Indonesia
certainly has the leverage to direct regional developments. Some
of these accomplishments include: introduction of the concept of
national resilience, later developed by countries in the region
as a regional realliance, and the hosting of the Asia Pacific
Economic Cooperation (ASEAN) and Non-Aligned summit meeting and
other major regional meetings.

Indonesia is viewed as a giant, or at the least a major
regional leader for several reasons (1) its population and
geographical configuration; (2) its potential to develop into a
formidable regional power; (3) its driving force behind ASEAN;
(4) as founder of the ASEAN Regional Forum and (5) its ability to
participate fully and extensively in the political and economic
development of the region while projecting a dominant influence
in the region. Measured by historical standards, Indonesia's
regional role has been a vital element in the region's strategic
direction.

Internal developments within the country during the past two
years however, have rocked the country's regional reputation and
reduced its stamina. The unexpected transfer of power from
Soeharto to Habibie and the developments that ensued created
havoc in the country.

Riots in many parts of the country break out almost every day,
while tension among political elites continue. A seemingly
wealthy, prosperous and stable Indonesia has become a victim of
its own erroneous policies. It no longer demonstrates a dynamic
attitude within the region.

The Indonesia of today reveals two predominant and negative
characteristics of the region. These are (1) an unstable country
which is unattractive and unsafe for investment and (2) an inward
looking and frustrated country that is no longer unified. It has
lost the energy to maintain its credibility. Given these
realities, Indonesia faces a very uncertain political future.

Assuming the elections will take place as planned, and because
suspicion and hatred among political actors is already planted,
the polls will not guarantee a stable and secure national
climate. If the postelection government is unable to demonstrate
its ability to handle domestic problems, it will certainly affect
Indonesia's future regional role.

The postelection political condition will be vulnerable, given
perceived tendencies toward maintaining the status quo,
generalized conflict and resistance. Perhaps, the postelection
era will witness the dawn of a "new war" and further disarray
within the system.

A critical weakness within Indonesian society is that people
are not motivated strongly to achieve unity as a nation. The
public mood seems to be defensive, conservative, and disinclined
to push forward and create.

This may lead one to conclude that problems facing Indonesia
will not disappear even if a transition to democracy happens. The
burden is already too huge, the fractures too deep.

A worst case scenario would suggest that any protracted
destabilization in Indonesia will have serious repercussions for
regional stability and security in Southeast Asia.

In addition, continuing ethnic, racial, religious and class
conflicts together with a mounting tendency for separatism in the
provinces may create an influx of refugees, destabilizing
strategic routes for energy supplies to Northeast Asia.

The economic and political turbulence in Indonesia has caused
the country to lose legitimacy and external credibility. It seems
on the verge of collapse. An element of strong opposition, and
conflict of interest exists in the present fragile system. It
deeply affects the life of the country and the way some perceive
the problem. Those who used to regard Indonesia from the
perspective of its sustained self-reliance, no longer say the
country reflects a strong and cohesive unity.

Political and economic affairs were mishandled by the New
Order government. The reluctance of the current government to
restore normal conditions to the country has resulted in a slump
in confidence in Indonesia's leadership. The nervous system of
the former giant's feet was infected by its own past policy
mistakes. Now it no longer has the strength and resilience to
resurrect its former capacities.

The giant is now crawling, trying to find room to breath;
attempting to convince the region that the reform program it
initiated a year ago will prevent further chaos. But no one can
be sure. One could ask what kinds of knowledge will contribute
the most to anticipating and understanding our national problem
in the next 10 to 20 years?

Developments in Indonesia continue to be watched by the
region. No one is quite certain how much time Indonesia requires
for this difficult process of restoring strength and endurance.
Cynics may think it is perhaps nonsense to talk about strength
and endurance, as Indonesia continues to fall into a well of
problems.

Confidence in the government's ability to manage the economy
continues to be damaged by policy inconsistencies. Confidence is
proving difficult to regain. The lack of progress in resolving
the economic collapse in Indonesia hangs over the recovery of the
region. It has already dragged Indonesia into sociopolitical
struggles.

Although pessimistic views on Indonesia's future path are
raised, the country will require a long time before it will find
comprehensive solutions to the problems, rebuilds the country and
strengthens its base again.

Such a solution generally comprises several steps, namely: (1)
to formulate long-term national strategy; (2) reinforce or re-
lift the national political process, not through conflict but
through cooperative and healthy efforts involving all segments of
society; (3) initiate measures that will convince the masses that
continued participation in the process of globalization is a sine
qua non for modernization, despite temporary setbacks caused by
the economic crisis; (4) create a government accountable to
public scrutiny and (5) create a national system capable of
quickly responding to meet new or unexpected challenges.

These measures however, are meaningless unless Indonesia is
willing to correct its former methods for tackling national
problems. What is perhaps important is that the government create
a purposeful society, in which the energies of the people are
directed and dedicated.

Unlike the past 32 years, in which government policies locked
up the society and contributed to internal weaknesses within the
state, a new purposeful Indonesian society should be formed on
the basis of new political influences and inspiration.

Such a society can encourage and support dialog between each
component of the society to facilitate the emergence of democracy
and discourage efforts to create a hostile climate. Perhaps only
through such a process will Indonesia (1) regain its confidence;
(2) restore its external credibility; (3) enhance its standing in
the region and (4) organize to confront challenges from within
and outside.

A postelection Indonesia will definitely face new challenges
that it must respond to. This may involve changes in the nature
of interaction and cooperation between political actors and their
orientations, the emergence of a stronger middle-class and
changes in conducting communication.

However, it is also possible that Indonesia will continue with
a modus operandi from the past, without responding to some of
these challenges, and in the process further damage it's already
weakened system. This would mean Indonesia will remain a giant
with feet of clay.

The writer is with the Department of International Affairs,
Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Jakarta.