RI, a Southeast Asia 'giant' with feet of clay

By Bantarto Bandoro

JAKARTA (JP): A giant is often understood as an imaginary being of great stature. It is assumed to have the ability to influence and apply pressure on others. Accordingly, it can, by peaceful means or force, do whatever it wants to do without any significant hindrance. A story of fiction often indicates that a giant is a creature who can dictate and determine the lives and fate of others.

Indonesia seems to carry weight with Southeast Asia countries. Attention is paid to its voice. Indonesia's diplomatic history, as seen for example in the konfrontasi incident, and its role in regional reconciliation throughout the late sixties and early seventies, established the country as a major power.

Being the most influential country in the region, Indonesia certainly has the leverage to direct regional developments. Some of these accomplishments include: introduction of the concept of national resilience, later developed by countries in the region as a regional realliance, and the hosting of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (ASEAN) and Non-Aligned summit meeting and other major regional meetings.

Indonesia is viewed as a giant, or at the least a major regional leader for several reasons (1) its population and geographical configuration; (2) its potential to develop into a formidable regional power; (3) its driving force behind ASEAN; (4) as founder of the ASEAN Regional Forum and (5) its ability to participate fully and extensively in the political and economic development of the region while projecting a dominant influence in the region. Measured by historical standards, Indonesia's regional role has been a vital element in the region's strategic direction.

Internal developments within the country during the past two years however, have rocked the country's regional reputation and reduced its stamina. The unexpected transfer of power from Soeharto to Habibie and the developments that ensued created havoc in the country.

Riots in many parts of the country break out almost every day, while tension among political elites continue. A seemingly wealthy, prosperous and stable Indonesia has become a victim of its own erroneous policies. It no longer demonstrates a dynamic attitude within the region.

The Indonesia of today reveals two predominant and negative characteristics of the region. These are (1) an unstable country which is unattractive and unsafe for investment and (2) an inward looking and frustrated country that is no longer unified. It has lost the energy to maintain its credibility. Given these realities, Indonesia faces a very uncertain political future.

Assuming the elections will take place as planned, and because suspicion and hatred among political actors is already planted, the polls will not guarantee a stable and secure national climate. If the postelection government is unable to demonstrate its ability to handle domestic problems, it will certainly affect Indonesia's future regional role.

The postelection political condition will be vulnerable, given perceived tendencies toward maintaining the status quo, generalized conflict and resistance. Perhaps, the postelection era will witness the dawn of a "new war" and further disarray within the system.

A critical weakness within Indonesian society is that people are not motivated strongly to achieve unity as a nation. The public mood seems to be defensive, conservative, and disinclined to push forward and create.

This may lead one to conclude that problems facing Indonesia will not disappear even if a transition to democracy happens. The burden is already too huge, the fractures too deep.

A worst case scenario would suggest that any protracted destabilization in Indonesia will have serious repercussions for regional stability and security in Southeast Asia.

In addition, continuing ethnic, racial, religious and class conflicts together with a mounting tendency for separatism in the provinces may create an influx of refugees, destabilizing strategic routes for energy supplies to Northeast Asia.

The economic and political turbulence in Indonesia has caused the country to lose legitimacy and external credibility. It seems on the verge of collapse. An element of strong opposition, and conflict of interest exists in the present fragile system. It deeply affects the life of the country and the way some perceive the problem. Those who used to regard Indonesia from the perspective of its sustained self-reliance, no longer say the country reflects a strong and cohesive unity.

Political and economic affairs were mishandled by the New Order government. The reluctance of the current government to restore normal conditions to the country has resulted in a slump in confidence in Indonesia's leadership. The nervous system of the former giant's feet was infected by its own past policy mistakes. Now it no longer has the strength and resilience to resurrect its former capacities.

The giant is now crawling, trying to find room to breath; attempting to convince the region that the reform program it initiated a year ago will prevent further chaos. But no one can be sure. One could ask what kinds of knowledge will contribute the most to anticipating and understanding our national problem in the next 10 to 20 years?

Developments in Indonesia continue to be watched by the region. No one is quite certain how much time Indonesia requires for this difficult process of restoring strength and endurance. Cynics may think it is perhaps nonsense to talk about strength and endurance, as Indonesia continues to fall into a well of problems.

Confidence in the government's ability to manage the economy continues to be damaged by policy inconsistencies. Confidence is proving difficult to regain. The lack of progress in resolving the economic collapse in Indonesia hangs over the recovery of the region. It has already dragged Indonesia into sociopolitical struggles.

Although pessimistic views on Indonesia's future path are raised, the country will require a long time before it will find comprehensive solutions to the problems, rebuilds the country and strengthens its base again.

Such a solution generally comprises several steps, namely: (1) to formulate long-term national strategy; (2) reinforce or re- lift the national political process, not through conflict but through cooperative and healthy efforts involving all segments of society; (3) initiate measures that will convince the masses that continued participation in the process of globalization is a sine qua non for modernization, despite temporary setbacks caused by the economic crisis; (4) create a government accountable to public scrutiny and (5) create a national system capable of quickly responding to meet new or unexpected challenges.

These measures however, are meaningless unless Indonesia is willing to correct its former methods for tackling national problems. What is perhaps important is that the government create a purposeful society, in which the energies of the people are directed and dedicated.

Unlike the past 32 years, in which government policies locked up the society and contributed to internal weaknesses within the state, a new purposeful Indonesian society should be formed on the basis of new political influences and inspiration.

Such a society can encourage and support dialog between each component of the society to facilitate the emergence of democracy and discourage efforts to create a hostile climate. Perhaps only through such a process will Indonesia (1) regain its confidence; (2) restore its external credibility; (3) enhance its standing in the region and (4) organize to confront challenges from within and outside.

A postelection Indonesia will definitely face new challenges that it must respond to. This may involve changes in the nature of interaction and cooperation between political actors and their orientations, the emergence of a stronger middle-class and changes in conducting communication.

However, it is also possible that Indonesia will continue with a modus operandi from the past, without responding to some of these challenges, and in the process further damage it's already weakened system. This would mean Indonesia will remain a giant with feet of clay.

The writer is with the Department of International Affairs, Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Jakarta.