Retailers Concerned Over Sluggish Sales Through January 2027

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - Bank Indonesia’s (BI) Retail Sales Survey (SPE) shows a potential weakening of retail sales sentiment for October 2026 and January 2027.

“Respondents forecast that retail sales in October 202lar and January 2027 will decrease,” according to the BI SPE document, Thursday (10/09/2026).

The potential decline in retail sales is evident from the October Sales Expectation Index (IEP), which fell to 143.9, lower than the previous period’s recorded 148.3.

Similarly, the IEP for January 2027 dropped to 158.0, down from 171.6 recorded in December 2026.

The BI SPE noted that the decline in retail sales expectations for October 2026 and January 2027 is mainly due to sellers’ predictions regarding the normalisation of public consumption patterns following the National Religious Holiday (HBKN) of Christmas.

“Respondents reported that the decline in the January 2027 IEP is influenced by the post-Christmas HBKN normalisation,” as stated in the BI SPE.

Nevertheless, up until August 2026, the Real Sales Index (IPR) is still projected to experience an increase, continuing the index rise seen in July 2026.

The IPR figure, which represents the forecast for retail sales in August 2026, was recorded at 224.6, representing a growth of 0.5% compared to August 2025. However, on a monthly basis or compared to July 2026, it decreased slightly, as the index figure was 224.9.

As is well known, the Retail Sales Survey (SPE) is a monthly survey conducted since September 1999, aimed at obtaining early information regarding the direction of GDP movement from the consumption side.

Since January 2015, the survey has been conducted among approximately 700 retailers as respondents using a purposive sampling method across 10 cities, namely Jakarta, Semarang, Bandung, Surabaya, Medan, Purwokerto, Makassar, Manado, Banjarmasin, and Denpasar.

The Real Sales Index (IPR) is calculated using commodity weights based on the Input-Output (I-O) table and city weights based on the share of Household (RT) consumption of the Regional Gross Domestic Product (PDRB) relative to Household consumption of the Gross Domestic Product (PDB).