Researchers estimate Ebola cases in DR Congo exceed 800, surpassing official data.
Researchers estimate that Ebola cases in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) may have surpassed 800, based on new analyses by Imperial College London and the World Health Organization (WHO). The count is far higher than the figure officially reported by authorities. The analysis, based on case data up to Saturday 16 May 2026, suggests the outbreak’s scale is likely much larger than the official figures. The concern was amplified after Uganda confirmed an infection in a traveller from Ituri Province, in the eastern part of Congo.
‘Taken together, this indicates that the epidemic is bigger than what is currently confirmed. However, the exact magnitude remains uncertain,’ the researchers wrote in the report. The group, led by Anne Cori, a mathematical modelling and statistics expert at the Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College, provided troubling estimates. The researchers estimate that about 400 to 800 Ebola cases caused by the Bundibugyo virus may have occurred in Congo by 17 May 2026. They do not rule out the possibility that the number could exceed 1,000 given current data uncertainties.
As of now, more than 540 suspected cases and dozens of deaths have been reported since the outbreak began in late April, with the main centre of transmission in Ituri Province. The Bundibugyo virus’s characteristics, distinct from the Zaire strain, add challenges to diagnostics and on-the-ground medical response. (Bloomberg/I-2)
In response to the increasingly precarious situation, WHO on Sunday designated the outbreak as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC), the highest alarm under global health protocols. The decision followed evidence of cross-border transmission risks, including Uganda. Experts warned that without more extensive interventions and more aggressive contact tracing, the actual number of infections would continue to lag behind what health systems in Congo can document.
The security situation in Ituri, which remains volatile, hampers access to remote areas believed to be virus reservoirs that have yet to be mapped.
WHO has declared the Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in Congo and Uganda a global health emergency after nearly 100 deaths in May 2026. The latest outbreak in DR Congo recorded 500 cases in a week, far faster than in 2014. WHO has indicated a high-risk assessment and has not yet declared a global pandemic emergency.