'Religion losing appeal in modern politics'
Tiarma Siboro and M. Taufiqurrahman, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta
The bulk of Muslim voters will choose Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono over Megawati Soekarnoputri in the Sept. 20 election runoff on the basis of his personality rather than his religious affinity, scholars say.
Muslim scholar Ulil Abshar Abdalla said on Thursday Susilo's personal charm would be what counted, although he was known to have built close ties with a number of Muslim figures upon their shared faith.
Ulil made his prediction because most Muslims, including members of the country's largest Muslim organization Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) and supporters of the United Development Party (PPP), had voted for Susilo in the first round on July 5.
"The voters' reasoning was clear: They opted for Susilo for his personal image, instead of his religion," Ulil told a discussion here held by the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI).
The discussion focused on new developments that have unfolded in recent years concerning the role of Islam in Indonesian politics.
LSI researcher Syaiful Mujani concurred with Ulil, saying that religion was no longer relevant, regardless that up to 90 percent of the population were Muslims.
Syaiful said the trend of electorates voting for Muslim-based parties had declined compared to the first democratic exercise in 1955, when almost 43.7 percent of voters considered religion the primary factor in deciding who to elect.
PPP executive Lukman Hakim Syaifuddin, who also spoke at the discussion, agreed with the two academics, saying that although the enrollment of students at Islamic-oriented schools had increased over the years, "their political stance ... have nothing to do with their religion."
Separately, the Institute of Research, Education and Social and Economic Affairs (LP3ES) revealed the results of its latest survey, which showed most respondents favored Susilo.
LP3ES found that 55.9 percent of interviewed respondents chose Susilo, compared to 28.7 percent who preferred Megawati, the incumbent president.
"The respondents prefer Susilo not only because of his personality, but also upon the belief that he could resolve the myriad problems afflicting the country now," the survey said.
LP3ES interviewed 2.525 respondents from all 32 provinces between Aug. 20 and Aug. 30, with a margin of error of 2 percent.
Despite his lead, the survey showed a 3.2 percent fall in public confidence in Susilo, down from 58.7 percent in June, while Megawati had improved by almost the same rate from 25.6 percent.
LP3ES found that the Nationhood Coalition -- comprising the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), the Golkar Party and a number of minor parties, which was formed to back Megawati's reelection bid -- was unlikely to make much difference in the polls, as 81.6 percent of respondents said they had made up their minds and would not be swayed by outside interference.
Over 70 percent of respondents also said results of opinion polls would not influence them in their vote.
Meanwhile, the survey found that the bulk of supporters of eliminated presidential candidates were likely to throw their support behind Susilo in the runoff.
"Over 60 percent of respondents who voted for Amien Rais- Siswono Yudohusodo and Wiranto-Solahuddin Wahid in the first round will vote for Susilo in the runoff," it said.