Regional security depends on big powers
Regional security depends on big powers
JAKARTA (JP): Even in the post-Cold war era, the security of
the Asia-Pacific is still very much dependent on the delicate
balance of relations between the region's major powers -- the
United States, China, Japan and, to a lesser extent, Russia.
Jusuf Wanandi, chairman of the supervisory board of the Centre
for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said yesterday
that peace, stability and development, as well as the vibrancy
and dynamism of the region, was partly dependent on the major
powers and their future relations.
Being the surviving superpower, the U.S. would remain a
dominant political and economical figure in the region, but it
was the role of the other three and their relations with each
other which was creating much uncertainty, he said.
Russia's emergence after the demise of the Soviet Union,
concern over China's territorial ambitions and the increasing
economic prominence of Japan have brought forth were affecting
the stability of the region, he said.
"One of the main uncertainties (in the region) is the new
equilibrium among the great powers," Jusuf said at the opening of
a two-day "Indonesia-Russia Conference" yesterday at the CSIS.
Overlapping territorial claims contribute a great deal to the
uncertainty, he argued, adding that the dispute in the South
China Sea could push China to flex its military might.
Indonesia's ambassador-at-large for maritime affairs, Hasjim
Djalal spoke of the prevailing fear that China could create a
great deal of trouble in the next century.
The 50-year-old dispute over the Kuril Islands between Japan
and Russia had an important bearing on the region as a whole,
Hasjim said.
"It has become a key issue for us to watch," he said.
Apart from territorial disputes, there was also the question
of what role Japan, China and Russia would assume, he said.
Due to Japan's economic might, Jusuf said it should play a
leadership role. "Japan's leadership is an important factor in
the stability of the region in the future," he said.
However, domestic political conditions presently do not seem
to support such a role and Jusuf believes that it will take some
time before this occurs.
He said he was less certain on the role China would take:
whether it would be a "status quo power or a revolutionary
power."
APEC
Speaking on Russia's possible stance, Jusuf contended that it
"has ambitions to be a leader." However, many agreed that
domestic problems and the European borders would be its priority
concern.
Despite the order of priorities, the Counselor at the Russian
Embassy in Jakarta, V. Kalinin, underlined the importance Moscow
attaches to the region.
One such example seems to be Russia's insistence that it be
included in a scheduled Asia-Europe Summit sometime next year and
a desire to be included in the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation
(APEC) forum.
"We expect that our official application for membership of the
forum will be considered positively," Kalinin said.
He said that Russia's participation in APEC would enhance
common economic and trade interests while in turn assisting in
carrying out market-oriented reforms in Russia, particularly in
Siberia and the Far East.
In the maze of these uncertainties, Jusuf argued that the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) could do much in
harmonizing relations between the major powers.
According to Jusuf, ASEAN provides a model for confidence-
building measures. ASEAN consists of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia,
the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand.
He said ASEAN could promote regional dialog and cooperation in
the political security field, which is crucial to the
establishment of stable relations between the great powers.
One of the hailed vehicles the Association has used to promote
regional security dialog is the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) which
brings together the six-members and other states and regional
powers.
"The ARF is the initial vehicle to establish a regional
institution to cope with political security matters for the whole
region," Jusuf said. (mds)