Regional security depends on big powers
Regional security depends on big powers
JAKARTA (JP): Even in the post-Cold war era, the security of the Asia-Pacific is still very much dependent on the delicate balance of relations between the region's major powers -- the United States, China, Japan and, to a lesser extent, Russia.
Jusuf Wanandi, chairman of the supervisory board of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said yesterday that peace, stability and development, as well as the vibrancy and dynamism of the region, was partly dependent on the major powers and their future relations.
Being the surviving superpower, the U.S. would remain a dominant political and economical figure in the region, but it was the role of the other three and their relations with each other which was creating much uncertainty, he said.
Russia's emergence after the demise of the Soviet Union, concern over China's territorial ambitions and the increasing economic prominence of Japan have brought forth were affecting the stability of the region, he said.
"One of the main uncertainties (in the region) is the new equilibrium among the great powers," Jusuf said at the opening of a two-day "Indonesia-Russia Conference" yesterday at the CSIS.
Overlapping territorial claims contribute a great deal to the uncertainty, he argued, adding that the dispute in the South China Sea could push China to flex its military might.
Indonesia's ambassador-at-large for maritime affairs, Hasjim Djalal spoke of the prevailing fear that China could create a great deal of trouble in the next century.
The 50-year-old dispute over the Kuril Islands between Japan and Russia had an important bearing on the region as a whole, Hasjim said.
"It has become a key issue for us to watch," he said.
Apart from territorial disputes, there was also the question of what role Japan, China and Russia would assume, he said.
Due to Japan's economic might, Jusuf said it should play a leadership role. "Japan's leadership is an important factor in the stability of the region in the future," he said.
However, domestic political conditions presently do not seem to support such a role and Jusuf believes that it will take some time before this occurs.
He said he was less certain on the role China would take: whether it would be a "status quo power or a revolutionary power."
APEC
Speaking on Russia's possible stance, Jusuf contended that it "has ambitions to be a leader." However, many agreed that domestic problems and the European borders would be its priority concern.
Despite the order of priorities, the Counselor at the Russian Embassy in Jakarta, V. Kalinin, underlined the importance Moscow attaches to the region.
One such example seems to be Russia's insistence that it be included in a scheduled Asia-Europe Summit sometime next year and a desire to be included in the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum.
"We expect that our official application for membership of the forum will be considered positively," Kalinin said.
He said that Russia's participation in APEC would enhance common economic and trade interests while in turn assisting in carrying out market-oriented reforms in Russia, particularly in Siberia and the Far East.
In the maze of these uncertainties, Jusuf argued that the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) could do much in harmonizing relations between the major powers.
According to Jusuf, ASEAN provides a model for confidence- building measures. ASEAN consists of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand.
He said ASEAN could promote regional dialog and cooperation in the political security field, which is crucial to the establishment of stable relations between the great powers.
One of the hailed vehicles the Association has used to promote regional security dialog is the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) which brings together the six-members and other states and regional powers.
"The ARF is the initial vehicle to establish a regional institution to cope with political security matters for the whole region," Jusuf said. (mds)