Reformasi Jilid II Narrative Deemed Irrelevant, Indonesia Still Far from 1998 Crisis

Jakarta – The discourse linking the weakening of the rupiah exchange rate to the possibility of a ‘Reformasi Jilid II’ is considered irrelevant because it lacks a strong foundation. Political analyst Kristian Widya Wicaksono from Parahyangan University (Unpar) in Bandung emphasised that Indonesia’s current conditions are vastly different from the multidimensional crisis situation that occurred in 1998.

‘Scientifically, the conditions in 2026 cannot be equated with the severe crisis of 1998,’ Kristian said on Friday, 12 June 2026.

According to Kristian, although Indonesia is facing economic pressures due to global dynamics, the situation cannot yet be compared to the crisis that triggered major political change nearly three decades ago. He assessed that various economic indicators and national stability still demonstrate considerable resilience.

‘Indonesia is currently in a phase of heavy economic stress, but has not yet entered a phase of macro collapse like 1998,’ he explained.

The 1998 crisis occurred due to a combination of factors, ranging from the collapse of the financial system, soaring inflation, a wave of layoffs, to the decline in public trust in state institutions.

‘In 1998, Indonesia experienced a systemic crisis with an economic contraction reaching 10 to 15 percent and inflation exceeding 80 percent,’ Kristian revealed.

Kristian explained that the current government still possesses relatively strong fiscal and monetary policy instruments to maintain national economic stability.

‘Current macroeconomic conditions show better resilience. Bank Indonesia is still reporting a sustained trade surplus and inflation that remains relatively controlled within the target range, despite mounting pressures,’ he said.

The public is urged not to be easily swayed by narratives that directly compare the current situation with the 1998 crisis. According to him, the economic challenges facing Indonesia need to be addressed rationally and based on data, so as not to cause excessive worry among the public.

Overall, Indonesia’s current condition remains within a controlled corridor despite facing global economic pressures. Various indicators show that the foundation of the national economy remains stronger compared to the 1998 crisis period, so the narrative linking the rupiah’s weakening to the likelihood of a ‘Reformasi Jilid II’ is deemed to lack an adequate basis and has the potential to mislead public perception.