Reform ushers in new sence of realism among Indonesian voters

Hanys Salmi, Contributor, Kuala Lumpur

The above title may remind many of Francis Fukuyama's best seller The End of History and the Last Man, in which he proposed the hypothesis that western liberal democracy would prevail as the final mode of the human search for political systems. In Indonesia's case, the main theme of public discourse today is the death of loyalty to political organizations. It is a wild card no politician in the country can explain, as to why there is no correlation between the aspirations of political organizations and those of the millions of voters electing their new national leaders.

In the legislative election on April 5 this year, political leaders thought that the degree of party loyalty was so high that it represented the right basis on which to calculate success chances for the July 5 presidential election. So strong was that belief that it tricked the presidential candidates into believing that loyalty to political organizations was still alive

This was the reason why former general, Wiranto, jockeyed Golkar and embraced Solahuddin Wahid as his running mate. He thought that Golkar's victory in the legislative election, plus the millions of followers of Nahdlatul Ulama and the National Awakening Party (PKB), of which Wahid is a patron, would boost his chances of winning the presidential election.

Only now has he realized that he was riding on a naughty horse. The political machines did not work. Golkar did not mean much to Wiranto in the presidential election, neither did his reliance on the PKB and the NU, which is supposedly a 40-million- member organization.

Megawati Soekarnoputri's reliance on the Democratic Struggle of Power (PDI-P), and half of the NU embracing its former chairman Hasyim Muzadi, also produced a similar pattern of results. Voters from these two big organizations redirected their preferences to other candidates.

The same is true for Amien Rais' reliance on the claimed 20-million-strong Muhammadiyah, plus six million members of his running mate Siswono Yudhohusodo's farmers union (HKTI). And Hamzah Haz' traditional conviction of the Muslim United Development Party's (PPP) fanaticism also produced the opposite result as Muslims abandoned him. Even today, Hamzah can't explain why the religion failed to draw supporters to his camp.

These developments point to one simple reality, that loyalty to political organizations has actually died in Indonesia. And there is no correlation between political leaders' understanding of voters' support and the voters' understanding of it. Why? Because Indonesian voters' support is highly fragile and mobile due to the lack of a credible reservoir, through which to properly channel the people's aspirations.

This being the case, political coalitions that may emerge between now and the period after the conclusion of the second round of the presidential election on Sept. 20 may not necessarily have any correlation with the wishes of the voters. There may be coalitions, but to satisfy the ambitions of the politicians who are now in search of justification and legitimacy.

Given this new trend, analysts are wondering whether the members of the House of Representatives really represent their true constituencies. One may wonder whether the results of the April 5 legislative election were the outcome of a genuine process of democracy, or the consequences of a political game -- in which the motives were hidden from the voters.

The same is also true for the presidential election. If there is no correlation between the political organizations and their constituencies, what is the use of relying upon such political parties? Reform has ushered in a new sense of realism among Indonesians, that they now need a new pair of national leaders whether or not there are political organizations around. This vindicates Kwik Kian Gie's weird theory that whether or not there is a government, the economy will proceed in its own way.

There are temptations to assume that the Indonesian legislature is one thing, but the real embodiment of people's aspirations is quite another issue, which is yet to be found in the evolutionary process of Indonesian democracy. And the Indonesian body politics is one thing, but the real representation of people's sovereignty is quite another issue, which is yet to be searched for as the nation proceeds on its bumpy road to democracy.

Between now and then, consequently, the country's energy and financial resources will be wasted on satisfying the wishes of politicians among many institutions. Little will be spared to meet the people's demands for the improvement of their welfare. This is because the politicians are the ones sitting atop the long chain of decision-making authority, stretching from the palace in Jakarta to villages in remote parts of this archipelago.

And where are the business leaders? They are now part of the body politics. You need to be a smart politician to be able to remain a successful business leader in Indonesia today. In fact all the geniuses of Indonesia's business community have now merged with politicians to secure their long-term interests.

The main theme remains: Loyalty to Indonesia's political organizations has died. In its place now stand confusing patterns of politico-business interests mixed up with the ambitions of political leaders, who wish to build or perpetuate their influence over indoctrinated perceptions of a fledgling democratic audience -- for purposes still unknown to many analysts in this region.

The last man in Indonesia's procession to democracy as of today is Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, whose lead in the election is widening. But, assuming he won the second round and failed to manage conflicting patterns of public aspirations, people would abandon him five years from now.

He needs to review Francis Fukuyama's best-seller Trust of which the main issue is "social capital." This is what is lacking in Indonesia. It remains to be seen whether Indonesia's current "last man" can nurture mutual trust among the political forces and the people in order to keep the nation united.

The writer is a researcher on Indonesian affairs at a Kuala Lumpur-based company. He can be reached at hanyssalmi@malaysia.com