Reform ushers in new sence of realism among Indonesian voters
Reform ushers in new sence of realism among Indonesian voters
Hanys Salmi, Contributor, Kuala Lumpur
The above title may remind many of Francis Fukuyama's best
seller The End of History and the Last Man, in which he proposed
the hypothesis that western liberal democracy would prevail as
the final mode of the human search for political systems. In
Indonesia's case, the main theme of public discourse today is the
death of loyalty to political organizations. It is a wild card no
politician in the country can explain, as to why there is no
correlation between the aspirations of political organizations
and those of the millions of voters electing their new national
leaders.
In the legislative election on April 5 this year, political
leaders thought that the degree of party loyalty was so high that
it represented the right basis on which to calculate success
chances for the July 5 presidential election. So strong was that
belief that it tricked the presidential candidates into believing
that loyalty to political organizations was still alive
This was the reason why former general, Wiranto, jockeyed
Golkar and embraced Solahuddin Wahid as his running mate. He
thought that Golkar's victory in the legislative election, plus
the millions of followers of Nahdlatul Ulama and the National
Awakening Party (PKB), of which Wahid is a patron, would boost
his chances of winning the presidential election.
Only now has he realized that he was riding on a naughty
horse. The political machines did not work. Golkar did not mean
much to Wiranto in the presidential election, neither did his
reliance on the PKB and the NU, which is supposedly a 40-million-
member organization.
Megawati Soekarnoputri's reliance on the Democratic Struggle
of Power (PDI-P), and half of the NU embracing its former
chairman Hasyim Muzadi, also produced a similar pattern of
results. Voters from these two big organizations redirected their
preferences to other candidates.
The same is true for Amien Rais' reliance on the claimed
20-million-strong Muhammadiyah, plus six million members of his
running mate Siswono Yudhohusodo's farmers union (HKTI). And
Hamzah Haz' traditional conviction of the Muslim United
Development Party's (PPP) fanaticism also produced the opposite
result as Muslims abandoned him. Even today, Hamzah can't explain
why the religion failed to draw supporters to his camp.
These developments point to one simple reality, that loyalty
to political organizations has actually died in Indonesia. And
there is no correlation between political leaders' understanding
of voters' support and the voters' understanding of it. Why?
Because Indonesian voters' support is highly fragile and mobile
due to the lack of a credible reservoir, through which to
properly channel the people's aspirations.
This being the case, political coalitions that may emerge
between now and the period after the conclusion of the second
round of the presidential election on Sept. 20 may not
necessarily have any correlation with the wishes of the voters.
There may be coalitions, but to satisfy the ambitions of the
politicians who are now in search of justification and
legitimacy.
Given this new trend, analysts are wondering whether the
members of the House of Representatives really represent their
true constituencies. One may wonder whether the results of the
April 5 legislative election were the outcome of a genuine
process of democracy, or the consequences of a political game --
in which the motives were hidden from the voters.
The same is also true for the presidential election. If there
is no correlation between the political organizations and their
constituencies, what is the use of relying upon such political
parties? Reform has ushered in a new sense of realism among
Indonesians, that they now need a new pair of national leaders
whether or not there are political organizations around. This
vindicates Kwik Kian Gie's weird theory that whether or not there
is a government, the economy will proceed in its own way.
There are temptations to assume that the Indonesian
legislature is one thing, but the real embodiment of people's
aspirations is quite another issue, which is yet to be found in
the evolutionary process of Indonesian democracy. And the
Indonesian body politics is one thing, but the real
representation of people's sovereignty is quite another issue,
which is yet to be searched for as the nation proceeds on its
bumpy road to democracy.
Between now and then, consequently, the country's energy and
financial resources will be wasted on satisfying the wishes of
politicians among many institutions. Little will be spared to
meet the people's demands for the improvement of their welfare.
This is because the politicians are the ones sitting atop the
long chain of decision-making authority, stretching from the
palace in Jakarta to villages in remote parts of this
archipelago.
And where are the business leaders? They are now part of the
body politics. You need to be a smart politician to be able to
remain a successful business leader in Indonesia today. In fact
all the geniuses of Indonesia's business community have now
merged with politicians to secure their long-term interests.
The main theme remains: Loyalty to Indonesia's political
organizations has died. In its place now stand confusing patterns
of politico-business interests mixed up with the ambitions of
political leaders, who wish to build or perpetuate their
influence over indoctrinated perceptions of a fledgling
democratic audience -- for purposes still unknown to many
analysts in this region.
The last man in Indonesia's procession to democracy as of
today is Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, whose lead in the election is
widening. But, assuming he won the second round and failed to
manage conflicting patterns of public aspirations, people would
abandon him five years from now.
He needs to review Francis Fukuyama's best-seller Trust of
which the main issue is "social capital." This is what is lacking
in Indonesia. It remains to be seen whether Indonesia's current
"last man" can nurture mutual trust among the political forces
and the people in order to keep the nation united.
The writer is a researcher on Indonesian affairs at a Kuala
Lumpur-based company. He can be reached at
hanyssalmi@malaysia.com