Reasons Behind the UAE's Exit from OPEC: Constrained by Oil Production Quotas

JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com — The United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) decision to leave the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and OPEC+ represents a major shock to the global energy market. Quoted from Reuters on Wednesday (29/4/2026), this step, effective from 1 May 2026, is not a sudden decision but the culmination of prolonged tensions regarding production quotas, Abu Dhabi’s energy expansion strategy, and the geopolitical dynamics of the Middle East region. The UAE, OPEC’s third-largest oil producer after Saudi Arabia and Iraq, has been known in recent years to frequently differ in views with the organisation’s main members, particularly on production restrictions. “This decision is taken in the interest of national priorities and a commitment to meeting urgent market needs,” said Al Mazrouei. One of the main roots of the UAE’s exit from OPEC is the country’s ambition to aggressively increase its oil production capacity. Reuters reports that the UAE targets a production capacity of up to 5 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2027, up from around 3 million bpd currently. Abu Dhabi has invested billions of US dollars to expand production capacity through the state oil company Adnoc. However, these investments, according to several analysts, do not align with the output restrictions imposed by OPEC. Helima Croft from RBC Capital Markets described the decision as closely related to the UAE’s desire to gain flexibility in monetising their energy investments. In an Associated Press report, analysts also assessed that the UAE is increasingly uncomfortable with the quota mechanism, which is seen as hindering the country’s long-term strategy as a low-cost producer with relatively low carbon emissions. Disputes over production quotas are not a new issue. Tensions between the UAE and Saudi Arabia emerged in 2021 when Abu Dhabi rejected the OPEC+ production cut proposal, leading to a deadlock in negotiations.