Ray Rangkuti: Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin Emerges in the 2029 Presidential Candidates Field, Like SBY in the 2004 Presidential Election

Jakarta — Political analyst and director of Lingkar Madani (Lima), Ray Rangkuti, has warned that the appearance of Defence Minister Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin in the field of presidential hopefuls for 2029 could repeat the political tragedy of 2004. At that time, according to Ray, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY), then chairman of the Democratic Party and a minister in Megawati Sukarnoputri’s cabinet as Coordinating Minister for Political and Security Affairs (2001-2004), emerged as Megawati’s rival in the presidential election. ‘What may happen again? What was the 2004 tragedy? an Indonesian Armed Forces officer who was a member of the cabinet when asked by Megawati, ’Are you going to run or not?’ he replied ‘no,’ but continued to move behind the scenes to popularise his name,’ Ray said during a discussion organised by the Indonesia Youth Congress at the Tamarin Hotel, Jakarta, quoted on Wednesday, 4 March 2026. Megawati, Ray said, at that time yielded and dismissed SBY from the post of Coordinating Minister for Political and Security Affairs. However, that decision boosted SBY’s profile. ‘Resignation—no, the dismissal—when issued, his name rose and he became the first political victim of Madam Megawati. Then he seized the opportunity to form the Demokrat Party and advance in the 2004 presidential election against Megawati and he won,’ he explained. Ray admitted he doubts the SBY scenario will repeat with Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin. After all, the 20-year cycle has elapsed. Still, he says, anything can happen in politics, so the dynamics ahead of the 2029 presidential election are worth watching. ‘Will the same story happen? Of course not, because the cycle is now 20 years; 2004 (the SBY incident) happened, now it is 2026 and the contest is 2029. So 2029 is already 25 years, and in Indonesia political cycles generally run in 20-year intervals. Will Sjafrie undertake the 20-year cycle as SBY did in 2004? We’ll wait and see,’ Ray concluded.