Rain Potential in NTB Below 10%, Drought Predicted Until Early 2027

Rainfall in West Nusa Tenggara (NTB) during the third dekad of August 2026 was very minimal. According to records from the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), rainfall in NTB was in the low category, namely 0 to 10 mm per dekad with below-normal rainfall characteristics.

Head of the Zainuddin Abdul Madjid (ZAM) Meteorological Station, Tri Widiarto, said monitoring of consecutive dry days (HTH) in NTB was in a very long range, reaching 31 to 60 days. This impact has caused extreme drought (more than 60 days) in several areas.

“The longest dry spell was recorded in Bima Regency, reaching 105 days without rain and falling into the extreme drought category,” said Tri in his statement, Monday (31/8/2026).

BMKG, Tri said, has predicted that the 2026 El Niño phenomenon will persist until early 2027. Air mass flow in most parts of Indonesia is currently dominated by easterly winds with wind bends visible around the equator.

Meanwhile, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in Indonesian waters for the period September to November 2026 are predicted to be dominated by normal conditions to negative anomalies or cooler temperatures, ranging from -0.5 to 0.2 degrees Celsius.

According to Tri, these water conditions are forecast to only begin warming in December 2026. Meanwhile, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) was recorded as active in phase 6 during the first dekad of August 2026.

“Entering the first dekad of September 2026 (1-10 September), the chance of rain occurring across the entire NTB region is recorded as very small, namely below 10 percent,” Tri emphasised.

BMKG has also issued an early warning for meteorological drought related to these conditions. The early warning is divided into three alert levels in NTB.

Areas affected at the alert level include North Lombok in Bayan District, East Lombok in Pringgabaya and Sambelia Districts, and Bima Regency in Sanggar and Monta Districts.

Meanwhile, the standby level covers Mataram in Mataram District, West Lombok including Gerung, Gunung Sari, Kediri, Lingsar, Sekotong Tengah, and Narmada Districts. Central Lombok areas include North Batukliang, Jonggat, Praya, Southwest Praya, Central Praya, and Pujut Districts.

“There are also several districts in East Lombok, West Sumbawa, Dompu including Dompu, Hu’u, Kempo, and Pekat Districts, as well as Bima Regency in Lambu, Langgudu, Palibelo, Sape, Tambora, and Wawo Districts,” said Tri.