Q1 2026 Balance of Payments Deficit Exceeds Entire 2025
Bank Indonesia (BI) said Indonesia’s Balance of Payments (NPI) recorded a deficit of US$9.1 billion in Q1 2026, reversing the US$6.1 billion surplus in Q4 2025. The deficit in Q1 2026 also exceeded the full-year 2025 deficit of US$7.8 billion.
‘Going forward, BI will continuously monitor global economic dynamics that can affect the NPI outlook and will strengthen policy-mix responses, supported by close policy synergies with the government and relevant authorities to bolster external resilience,’ said Ramdan Denny Prakoso, Executive Director of BI’s Communications Department, in a press release on Friday, 22 May 2026.
BI projects the NPI performance in 2026 to remain robust with a current account deficit in the range of 1.3 percent to 0.5 percent of GDP.
In Q1 2026, the current account recorded a deficit of US$4 billion, or 1.1 percent of GDP. This deficit widened from Q4 2025, which recorded a deficit of US$2.5 billion or about 0.7 percent of GDP.
In its report, BI noted that the development of the current account was mainly influenced by a decline in the goods trade surplus amidst a narrowing deficit in services. The goods trade balance in Q1 2026 posted a surplus of US$8.0 billion, lower than the Q4 2025 surplus of US$10.2 billion.
Meanwhile, capital and financial transactions recorded a deficit of US$4.9 billion, reversing from the previous quarter which posted a surplus of US$9.0 billion.
Direct investment and portfolio investment remained in surplus, though lower than in the previous quarter. ‘Meanwhile, other investments recorded a deficit, affected by repayments of foreign loans maturing and placements of cash and deposits, as well as other assets abroad,’ he said.
Direct investment in Q1 2026 posted net inflows of US$2.0 billion, lower than US$3.2 billion in the previous quarter. Portfolio investment posted a surplus of US$0.7 billion, lower than the US$4.7 billion surplus in the previous quarter. By contrast, other investments posted a deficit of US$7.8 billion, after a surplus of US$1.0 billion in the previous quarter.