Pure Electric Vehicles to Dominate 90% of China's Market by 2040

JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com - China’s automotive industry transformation towards electrification is predicted to increasingly focus on pure electric vehicles or battery electric vehicles (BEVs). This was stated by Professor Ouyang Minggao at the Intelligent Electric Vehicle Development Forum held in Beijing on 11–12 April. Quoted by Carnewschina, Ouyang assesses that plug-in hybrid (PHEV) and extended-range electric vehicle (EREV) technologies are entering a decline phase, in line with the efficiency advantages possessed by pure electric vehicles. According to him, a full electric drive system can utilise green energy far more optimally. This condition, he continued, will become the primary factor determining the direction of technological dominance in the future. Ouyang also presented projections for the market share of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China over the coming decades. By 2030, the market share is estimated to penetrate 70 per cent, with the composition of BEVs and PHEVs around 7:3. Five years later, the market share is projected to stabilise above 80 per cent, with the ratio increasing to 8:2. Meanwhile, by 2040, pure electric vehicles are predicted to dominate absolutely with a composition reaching 9:1. He emphasised that this dominance will end debates on eco-friendly vehicle technology pathways and serve as a springboard for China’s automotive industry to transition from merely large to globally strong. He estimated that solid-state batteries with an energy density of 300 Wh/kg will only be more widely ready towards the end of this decade. Therefore, manufacturers are urged to be cautious not to turn this technology into mere marketing tools. Nevertheless, China has recorded significant progress in this sector.