Purbaya's Office Reveals Potential 'Indonesian Windfall' from Middle East Crisis

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - The government is confident of positive impacts from the turmoil in the Middle East on state revenues in the form of windfall profits or a ‘windfall durian’ from the increase in export commodity prices. With this windfall profit, plans to implement export duty policies such as on coal to boost state revenues have emerged. Unfortunately, Febrio Nathan Kacaribu, Director General of the Directorate General of Economic and Fiscal Strategy at the Ministry of Finance, could not yet detail the potential value of the windfall profit from Indonesia’s natural resource exports. “We haven’t yet; we’re still discussing it. When the menu is clear, we’ll announce it for sure, along with the potential revenue amount,” said Febrio, after a discussion at the Government Communication Agency (BAKOM RI), on Thursday (9/4/2026). Febrio explained that the increase in state revenues comes from rising prices of commodities such as coal, CPO, nickel, and copper. Even without any policy changes by the government. However, seeing this potential, the government plans to optimise the additional revenues. The approach involves policy changes, either through increased royalties or export duties. “That’s what we’ll be discussing with the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources; there are various minerals we’re looking at. It could take various forms, royalties, export duties; we’ll finalise it, and once it’s final, we’ll talk about it,” he said. One measure that has been confirmed is the imposition of export duties on coal commodities ranging from 5% to 10%, to be implemented this month. There are also plans to impose duties on other commodities like nickel, though Febrio was not yet willing to confirm. “That’s (nickel) also under consideration; we’re considering everything with the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources,” he stated. Windfall Profit Leads to Windfall Tax. Mukhamad Misbakhun, Chairman of Commission XI of the DPR RI from the Golkar Party Faction, acknowledged that the rise in oil prices could also be offset by increases in Indonesian export commodity prices. Prices of commodities such as coal, palm oil, nickel, and agricultural products like rubber and coffee usually rise when global crude oil prices increase. This means those commodities will gain additional profits from the oil price surge (windfall profit). With this situation, state revenues are deemed still maintainable. Misbakhun also proposed the implementation of a windfall tax or one-off additional tax on natural resource business actors who gain significant profits from the commodity price increases. According to him, implementing a windfall tax is considered ideal because the managers of those natural resources, who receive concessions from the government, also receive multiplied profits. “They share the burden here because all the business profits obtained are state facilities. Use of forest land, control of mining concessions, and so on,” he explained.