Purbaya Says World Bank Has Sinned, Miscalculates Indonesia's Economic Projection
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa believes that the World Bank has miscalculated by forecasting Indonesia’s economic growth at only 4.7% this year.
He stated that such a growth rate would imply Indonesia is facing a recession, as it is lower than the 5.11% growth in 2025.
“That means the World Bank is calculating that we are heading for a recession, dropping very low. And if the average is 4.7%, I think the World Bank has miscalculated,” said Purbaya at his office in Jakarta on Thursday (9/4/2026).
Purbaya remains optimistic that Indonesia’s economic growth throughout this year will surge above the 2026 state budget target of 5.4%. This is because he is confident that first-quarter growth in 2026 will exceed 5.5-5.6%.
According to him, this higher growth rate can be realised because the government is focusing on driving economic growth through priority programmes while maintaining high liquidity in the private sector.
“The important thing for us is to ensure that the programmes run well, the financial system is ready to support economic growth, and the investment climate improves. I think with efforts like this, economic growth will turn around again,” said Purbaya.
Purbaya believes that the World Bank’s calculation for projecting 2026 economic growth includes the factor of high oil prices due to the war in the Middle East between Iran, the United States, and Israel. However, he considers that oil prices are now starting to ease.
“But they (the World Bank) have committed a great sin by creating negative sentiment for us. I’ll wait for their apology when oil prices return to normal levels,” said Purbaya.
“If they change their economic prediction again, but I will optimise all the economic engines we have here,” he emphasised.
He stressed that the World Bank’s latest growth projection appears not to include factors from the government’s fiscal policies under his leadership.
“Maybe the World Bank is right later, but I don’t know. Clearly, in my figures, things seem to be improving continuously ahead, and we will keep it that way. Maybe the World Bank doesn’t know my secret moves, the secret moves of Mr Prabowo,” said Purbaya.
Director General of Economic and Fiscal Strategy at the Ministry of Finance, Febrio Nathan Kacaribu, also believes that the World Bank’s economic projections for Indonesia often miss the mark and always set them below the actual realisation.
“And last year, remember, they said 4.8%, we achieved 5.1%. So it’s fine, we’re glad that the World Bank and other investors are very keen to monitor Indonesia’s economy, and we can deliver, which is good news for investors,” he explained.
It is known that the World Bank projects Indonesia’s economic growth in 2026 at 4.7%, down from the previous estimate of 4.8%.
Quoted from the East Asia and Pacific Economic Update April 2026 edition, released on Wednesday (9/4/2026). However, this figure is higher than the projection for East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region growth, which is only 4.2%.
The World Bank states that growth in the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region is slowing in 2026 due to external shocks, according to the World Bank Group’s EAP Economic Update Report released today.
“Regional growth is projected to slow to 4.2% in 2026 from 5.0% in 2025, as energy shocks from the Middle East conflict exacerbate the adverse effects of rising trade barriers, global policy uncertainty, and domestic economic difficulties,” said Carlos Felipe Jaramillo, World Bank Vice President for East Asia and Pacific, in the release on Wednesday (9/4/2026).