Purbaya Reveals Key Conditions for IHSG to Reach 28,000 by 2030

Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, speaking at the inauguration of the Planned and Periodic Investment Programme (PINTAR) for Mutual Funds and the opening of Mutual Funds Week 2026 at the Indonesia Stock Exchange on Monday (27/4), shared an optimistic outlook on the long-term prospects of Indonesia’s stock market.

According to him, the Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) has the potential to rise significantly to around 28,000 by 2029-2030, or by the end of this decade, if economic reforms proceed consistently and national growth can be accelerated sustainably.

This statement reflects the government’s confidence that stock market valuations will ultimately follow the strength of economic fundamentals, rather than short-term sentiment.

IHSG 28,000 Described as Long-Term Scenario

Purbaya emphasised that this figure is not a short-term target for 2026, but rather a depiction of market potential if Indonesia can enter a new phase of economic expansion by around 2029–2030.

With the current IHSG position still far below that level, the 28,000 projection reflects multi-year upside potential if supported by earnings growth among issuers, inflows of capital, and increased investor confidence.

Key Conditions for IHSG to Surge

According to Purbaya, several prerequisites are needed for the stock market to experience a higher valuation rerating:

National economic growth remains high and stable

Private investment increases significantly

Bureaucracy becomes more efficient and business-friendly

State revenues strengthen

Financial system stability is maintained

The capital market becomes deeper and more liquid.

If these factors are achieved, Indonesia is assessed to have the opportunity to record higher economic growth than historical trends.

Economic Growth as the Key

Purbaya also mentioned projections for Indonesia’s economic growth in the first and second quarters of 2026 to exceed 5.5%. If this momentum continues over the next few years, the stock market could benefit from valuation increases alongside corporate profit expansion.

Historically, stock markets in emerging countries tend to strengthen when the economy grows rapidly, interest rates are stable, and domestic consumption remains robust.

Retail Investors Urged to Focus on Long-Term

For retail investors, the main message from this statement is to view stocks as a long-term wealth-building instrument, not merely daily speculation.

Investors not ready for individual stocks can consider collective instruments such as:

Money market mutual funds

Fixed income mutual funds

Equity mutual funds

ETFs according to risk profile

Risks Still Need to Be Monitored

Despite the optimistic tone, there are several risks that could hinder the IHSG 28,000 scenario:

Global economic slowdown

Prolonged high interest rates

Rupiah weakening

Sharp commodity price fluctuations

Global geopolitical tensions.

Therefore, the 28,000 level should be read as a potential scenario based on reforms, not an official government target guaranteed to be achieved.

Conclusion

Purbaya’s statement signals that the government views the capital market as a reflection of national economic progress. If reforms proceed consistently, economic growth can be maintained above 5%, and private investment increases, then the IHSG has the opportunity to enter a long-term bullish cycle towards the end of this decade, with 28,000 as an optimistic illustration.