Purbaya Reveals First-Half State Budget Details, Plunging Oil Prices in Focus
The Indonesian financial market is expected to continue facing external pressures. The Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) managed to reverse its losses, closing up 0.69% at 5,916.07 on Monday. On Wall Street, the positive trend continued, with the S&P 500 rising 0.72% to 7,537.43 and the Nasdaq Composite surging 1.12% to 26,121.16. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 155.84 points, or 0.29%, to a new record close of 53,055.91. The technology sector was the main driver, with the State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) climbing nearly 2%, led by a 7% jump in Western Digital shares. However, market strategist Anthony Saglimbene of Ameriprise Financial cautioned that expectations are now very high, suggesting a more moderate pace of gains and a potential rotation between AI leaders and the broader market in the coming months. Microsoft shares fell nearly 1% after the company announced layoffs of approximately 4,800 employees, while Dell Technologies surged over 4% following a promotion by President Donald Trump from the White House.
Today, the Indonesian financial market faces several key domestic and external sentiments. Domestically, the main focus is on the release of foreign exchange reserves and the realisation of the State Budget (APBN) for the first half of 2026. Externally, the decline in oil prices and a weakening US dollar index are expected to be positive drivers for the rupiah, stocks, and government bonds (SBN).
Oil prices fell to their lowest level in four months, with Brent crude trading at US$71.99 per barrel and WTI at US$68.55 per barrel. This decline occurred as shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continues to recover and OPEC+ signals an increase in global oil supply. OPEC+ members agreed to raise production quotas by 188,000 barrels per day for the coming month, continuing the gradual unwinding of long-standing production cuts. Major Gulf producers are accelerating output, with Saudi Arabian exports nearing pre-conflict levels and the UAE fully restoring its shipping activity. Meanwhile, the US dollar index weakened to 100.853, its lowest since 19 June 2026, which could encourage investors to buy emerging market instruments like the rupiah. Bank Indonesia is also set to release its June 2026 foreign exchange reserves data, with the market watching whether reserves have increased amid pressure on the rupiah, after previously falling to US$144.9 billion.