Purbaya Dismisses Analysts' Budget Deficit Projections, Predicting 1.8% for 2026

Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa has emphasised that the condition of the State Budget (APBN) remains well-maintained. Purbaya revealed that the state budget deficit at the end of April 2026 experienced a reduction from the previous 0.93% (IDR 240.1 trillion) to 0.64% (IDR 164.4 trillion).

Based on Purbaya’s calculations, following this improvement, he estimates that the year-end budget deficit will reach 1.8% of GDP. He noted that his methodology is similar to that used by analysts who previously predicted the 2026 budget deficit would exceed 3% of GDP.

“The deficit is now only IDR 164.4 trillion or 0.64%; in March, analysts estimated it at 0.93%,” said Purbaya. “So, if using the same calculations as them, 0.6% over four months would mean 1.8% for a full year. That is their way of calculating, but it is not how it works. That is ‘magical’ math. If I used their method, I would be dancing.”

Purbaya also highlighted that the primary balance recorded a surplus of IDR 28 trillion, expressing confidence that the future position will be even better than the current one. As of the end of April 2026, the government recorded state expenditure increasing by 34.3% year-on-year to reach IDR 1,082.8 trillion, while state revenue as of April 2026 was recorded at IDR 918.4 trillion, an increase of 13.3% year-on-year.