Provocation of Bankruptcy from 'De Volkskrant'

The Dutch newspaper De Volkskrant—the People’s Newspaper—published an analysis on Wednesday, 29 July 2026, that caused many Indonesians to raise their eyebrows. The analysis, written by Noël van Bemmel in Dutch, was titled: ‘Is Indonesië op weg naar bankroet?’ (Is Indonesia heading for bankruptcy?). The question is not only why such a headline appeared, but why Indonesia is now viewed with such concern by a media outlet published far away in Amsterdam. For some Indonesians, the headline may merely feel like a provocation. However, for investors, diplomats, academics, and international market players, such a headline is not just an analysis; it is a signal. In the modern financial world, perception runs like a wind-blown fire, while facts walk slowly like a firefighter just leaving the station. An analysis in a credible media outlet can influence how the market views a country, even if it does not always determine reality. De Volkskrant itself is no ordinary newspaper. Founded by religious figures in 1919, it is one of the three most influential national newspapers in the Netherlands. It is now owned by DPG Media, the largest media conglomerate in the Benelux region, with Pieter Klok as editor-in-chief. Its print circulation is indeed declining, as experienced by almost all newspapers worldwide. However, it has more than 320,000 paying subscribers and a daily readership of around 600,000 through print and digital editions. More importantly, it is known as a quality newspaper: a media reference for policymakers, businesspeople, academics, and professionals. Therefore, when such a newspaper questions the future of Indonesia’s economy, the clipping quickly spreads on social media and WhatsApp groups. Of course, we need not panic. Ignoring it is as wrong as swallowing it whole. An alarm is not a verdict, but neither is it a wall decoration. So, what did Noël van Bemmel actually write? Contrary to the impression given by the headline, he did not state that Indonesia has gone bankrupt. Van Bemmel constructed an argument that Indonesia is on a path which, in his assessment, could lead to a fiscal crisis if not corrected. In other words, the headline is a question, while the article’s content is an attempt to explain why the question deserves to be asked. Van Bemmel began his analysis by describing the emergence of concerns among Indonesian economists themselves. He cited various warnings regarding the weakening of the rupiah, slowing job creation, increasing pressure on the state budget, and declining investor confidence. He also touched on President Prabowo Subianto’s rejection of such pessimistic views. The President even mocked his critics as ‘zwarte Hollanders’ or ‘Londo Ireng’ (Black Dutchmen)—a term used to describe those perceived as always viewing Indonesia negatively. According to Van Bemmel, the main problem lies not in one specific policy, but in the entire direction of development now being pursued by the government. He labelled this strategy ‘Prabowonomics’. This refers to the state pouring massive funds into a free nutritious meal programme, the construction of three million homes, the development of the Nusantara Capital City, the strengthening of village cooperatives, industrial downstreaming, various national strategic projects, and the establishment of Danantara as a state investment vehicle. This entire agenda is seen as highly ambitious, but simultaneously raises major questions about its financing sources. The article then questions whether economic growth of around five per cent is sufficient to support all these agendas. The writer suggests that state revenue has not grown as fast as spending needs, while private investment has yet to show adequate enthusiasm. If this condition persists, according to his analysis, the government’s fiscal space will become increasingly narrow and market confidence could continue to weaken. It is from this perspective that he posed the question used as the article’s title: is Indonesia heading for bankruptcy?