Projected Fuel Price Hike for 1 June 2026 as Oil Prices Rise and Rupiah Weakens

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - Non-subsidised fuel prices are projected to rise from 1 June 2026. This projection follows rising global crude oil prices amid a significantly weakened rupiah against the US dollar. These two factors are key determinants in adjusting domestic non-subsidised fuel prices. Refinitiv data shows Brent crude averaged $103.71 per barrel in May 2026, a 1.22% increase from the previous month’s average. Meanwhile, the average global oil price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $98.42 per barrel in May, a marginal 0.37% rise from April’s average of $98.06. Global oil price movements in May were influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the US-Iran conflict. Both nations are still seeking a way to end the war. Peace talks continue with several countries acting as mediators, including Pakistan and Oman. However, the process remains stalled due to unresolved key issues. One major sticking point is the reopening of shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz. The US insists Iran fully reopen access, while Iran argues management of the strait cannot be unilaterally decided and requires regional consultation. Additionally, Iran’s nuclear programme remains a hurdle to peace. The US continues to demand assurances Iran cannot develop nuclear weapons, while Iran insists this issue should not be conflated with ceasefire talks. This has prevented a full peace agreement despite discussions on extending the truce. Uncertainty has intensified as military strikes continue towards month’s end. US forces reportedly launched attacks in southern Iran targeting vessels alleged to be laying mines and missile launch sites. Iran has labelled the strikes a ceasefire violation and affirmed its right to retaliate. This situation keeps oil markets on edge. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global energy trade route, and any disruption or threat to shipping there typically leads to risk premiums being added to oil prices. Meanwhile, the rupiah faced sustained pressure throughout May, weakening 3.24% against the US dollar to close at Rp17,865 per dollar on Friday (29/5/2026). It is worth noting that the government sets fuel prices based on a specific formula, using average global oil prices and the rupiah exchange rate due to high import dependency. According to Energy and Mineral Resources Ministerial Decision No. 19 K/10/MEM/2019, the pricing formula uses the Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS) average in USD/barrel from the 25th of the prior two months to the 24th of the previous month for current month pricing. The average Brent price over the past two months (April-May) was $103.09 per barrel, a 2.07% increase from March-April’s $101 average. Meanwhile, WTI’s two-month average also rose significantly by 4.02%, from $94.45 to $98.24 per barrel. This recent oil price rise will inevitably increase domestic oil import costs. Thus, with the rupiah’s continued depreciation and rising global oil prices, non-subsidised fuel prices are likely to rise from 1 June 2026. However, the government may still hold prices due to social and political considerations to maintain domestic stability, not just economic factors. The government must also consider public purchasing power amid rising basic commodity prices and a weakening rupiah, which could increase import costs for other goods. Notably, the government did not adjust non-subsidised fuel prices at the start of May, keeping them unchanged from April. As of 1 May 2026, Pertamina’s fuel prices remained steady for both subsidized and non-subsidised grades. However, adjustments occurred on 4 May 2026 when Pertamina raised prices for RON 98 (Pertamax Turbo) and non-subsidised diesel. For example, Pertamax Turbo RON 98 in Jakarta was set at Rp19,900 per litre, up from Rp19,400. Dexlite rose to Rp26,000 per litre from Rp23,600, while Pertamina Dex increased to Rp27,900 from Rp23,900. Pertamax RON 92 prices, however, remained unchanged at Rp12,300 per litre.