Professor says Indonesia liable to disintegrate

SEMARANG (JP): A U.S. professor has warned that Indonesia is extremely vulnerable to disintegration and that a leader who has the ability to maintain the unity of this archipelagic country is badly needed.

Roger Paget, a professor of political economy and Asian studies, said here on Saturday that electing B.J. Habibie as the next president would carry a high risk to unity and would worsen the economy.

Fierce brawls between Habibie and Megawati Soekarnoputri supporters were very likely and it would very difficult for Indonesia to get financial aid from Europe, the U.S. and other foreign donor countries, Paget, who is a visiting professor at Semarang's Diponegoro University, said.

"Therefore the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) must be very sensitive and responsive to people's aspirations and extra careful to elect a new president," the professor of Lewis and Clark College, Portland, Oregon, said.

Three figures have been cited as strong candidates in the presidential race: B.J. Habibie from the Golkar Party, chairman of Islamic organization Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" Wahid and chairwoman of the Indonesian Democratic Party Megawati Soekarnoputri, whose party won the most votes in June's general election.

Paget said it would be much better for the MPR to elect Gus Dur as the new president and Megawati as the vice president. "The country would gain internal stability and international trust.

"America and Europe would warmly welcome a new government led by duo Abdurrahman Wahid and Megawati. Foreign aid and investment would flow to Indonesia should the Gus Dur-Megawati duo lead the country," he said.

Habibie's and Megawati's camps would accept Gus Dur as the new president, so there would be no violent clashes, he said.

"This means that possible disintegration could be minimized."

Habibie has been severely criticized at home for his offer of self-determination to the East Timorese and his failure to deal with rights violations and communal clashes in Aceh, Pontianak, Maluku, Irian Jaya and other places in the country. It is feared that the clashes, in which innumerable lives were lost, could lead to the country's disintegration.

He also expressed concern over the deployment of political parties' supporters in Jakarta. "Each political party leader should have instilled in their supporters the need to be open- minded if their idols fail to win the presidential race. The supporters should also have been prohibited from being destructive and encouraged to abide by the laws and the 1945 Constitution." (har/sur)