Professor says Indonesia liable to disintegrate

Professor says Indonesia liable to disintegrate

SEMARANG (JP): A U.S. professor has warned that Indonesia is
extremely vulnerable to disintegration and that a leader who has
the ability to maintain the unity of this archipelagic country is
badly needed.

Roger Paget, a professor of political economy and Asian
studies, said here on Saturday that electing B.J. Habibie as the
next president would carry a high risk to unity and would worsen
the economy.

Fierce brawls between Habibie and Megawati Soekarnoputri
supporters were very likely and it would very difficult for
Indonesia to get financial aid from Europe, the U.S. and other
foreign donor countries, Paget, who is a visiting professor at
Semarang's Diponegoro University, said.

"Therefore the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) must be
very sensitive and responsive to people's aspirations and extra
careful to elect a new president," the professor of Lewis and
Clark College, Portland, Oregon, said.

Three figures have been cited as strong candidates in the
presidential race: B.J. Habibie from the Golkar Party, chairman
of Islamic organization Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) Abdurrahman "Gus
Dur" Wahid and chairwoman of the Indonesian Democratic Party
Megawati Soekarnoputri, whose party won the most votes in June's
general election.

Paget said it would be much better for the MPR to elect Gus
Dur as the new president and Megawati as the vice president. "The
country would gain internal stability and international trust.

"America and Europe would warmly welcome a new government led
by duo Abdurrahman Wahid and Megawati. Foreign aid and investment
would flow to Indonesia should the Gus Dur-Megawati duo lead the
country," he said.

Habibie's and Megawati's camps would accept Gus Dur as the new
president, so there would be no violent clashes, he said.

"This means that possible disintegration could be minimized."

Habibie has been severely criticized at home for his offer of
self-determination to the East Timorese and his failure to deal
with rights violations and communal clashes in Aceh, Pontianak,
Maluku, Irian Jaya and other places in the country. It is feared
that the clashes, in which innumerable lives were lost, could
lead to the country's disintegration.

He also expressed concern over the deployment of political
parties' supporters in Jakarta. "Each political party leader
should have instilled in their supporters the need to be open-
minded if their idols fail to win the presidential race. The
supporters should also have been prohibited from being
destructive and encouraged to abide by the laws and the 1945
Constitution." (har/sur)